Saturday, December 6, 2008

A Pre-Season Look At: The Oakland Athletics

After another heartbreaking playoff loss in Season 5, the Oakland Athletics are looking to make some major moves in an effort to help them avoid yet another early exit from the playoffs.

Oakland has been plagued with the problem of being an excellent 162-game season team. However, they have proven several years in a row that they simply are not cut out for the short series. The reason is simple: Lack of a true Ace.

The pitching is solid, that's for sure. Anchored by
Steve Kennedy & Fernando Rosado, followed in a pen captained by workhorse Lance Woolf & up and comer Fonzie Wayne (1.56 ERA in his Sept. callup), the pitching in Oakland is certainly top-notch...except there is no Chris Nen/Cesar Carrasquel out front. It's no coincidence that those two teams made it as far as they did in the postseason.

The offense, on the other hand, is absolutely stacked. Leading the charge in Season 6 will be the young, outstanding trio of
Roosevelt Thomas, Jeff Zambrano & Mo Springer. Former Season 4 AL MVP Turk Weaver is also still on board, although his numbers certainly fell off a bit last season (.332/.392/.607 in S4 & .293/.373/.500 in S5). Terry Heffner is also still around to patrol Right Field and abuse opposing pitchers with that career OPS around .965. Noteable is that last season, 8 players had over 20 HR's with Bryant Browne posting 19. Bear in mind that Thomas (20 HR's in 342 AB's), Zambrano (23 HR's in 396 AB's) & Springer (51 HR's in 432 AB's!) all started the season in AAA. Imagine what a full season of just those three can do for a team's offense.

So, what to expect out of Oakland in the offseason? I think they'd look to move a bunch of their young, solid players like 1B Bryant Browne, SP Willie Segui, RP Lance Turner, etc in an effort to upgrade to a true Ace. I also think you'll see them do something similar to what they did with Woolf last season and sign Kennedy and Weaver to long-term deals as they both have offered to take "less than market" deals. Also, expect to see a lot of the same coaches as most will be retianed, with perhaps as few as 4 being overheard as wanting to "test the market". Only time will really tell but one thing is certain, they will spend as much as they can on Training, Medical and their Advanced Scouts as these three keys have always helped lead to a succsful team in Oakland.

Trade Spotlight (Sydney White, Minnesota Twins)

Name: Sydney White
OVR: 81
Age: 29
B/T: L/R
Position: 3B/RF

Last season: .300/.355/.508/.863, 25 HR in 453 AB.
ML Career: .284/.342/.463/.805, 233 XBH in 2410 AB.
Contract: Arbitration-Eligible, seeking $7.3M.

Comments: Sydney is being pushed out of Minnesota by the emergence of 3B Virgil Mendoza and RF Hiram Bang. Though Sydney has been a .300+ hitter in 3 of his 5 ML seasons, Virgil is a superstar-in-the-making who cannot be denied and Bang has proven to excel as a Twin. One of the most interesting things about Sydney is that he is continuing to improve, despite being over 27. From the start of Season 5 to the start of Season 6, he picked up 1 point in health (now 83), one point in makeup (now 94), and one point in vRH (now 85), while not having a single rating drop!

Looking For: Youth. The main reason Sydney is being shopped is the money he is asking for. While he is a very good player, Minnesota does not want to spend $7.3M on a utility guy/backup 3B. The contract demands do, however, drive down his value somewhat, and so the Twins are only hoping to land a future ML setup guy or future ML utility player (top glove and power preferred, splits not expected but a bonus).

Best Suited For: (1) A Top Contender who wants that one more bat to help make the push over the top, especially vs. RH pitchers or (2) A rebuilding team that has cap room to spare. Sydney can either be shopped again at the trade deadline, when a Top Contender needs that one extra piece and may be willing to overpay or, with a 81 OVR, he would almost certainly be a Type A when he goes FA, and he'd bring in good draft picks as compensation to help with the rebuilding process.

Trade chat or offer up if interested, but move quickly because the Twins would like to work something out prior to the arbitration hearings.

A Look Ahead to Season 6 for the Minnesota Twins; Part 1 - Pitching

With the start of Season 6 just around the corner, it's time to preview the defending champion Minnesota Twins, so here goes. In part 1, we focus on the pitching staff.

Although it might be best to let the veteran players go off and explore greener pastures, Twins management has decided to try and keep the team together for at least one more season to see if any of the magic remains. Most of the pitching staff will be filled with established major-leaguers, and Twins management will be actively seeking to deal away some of the major-league-ready talent that simply won't get a chance to contribute to the Season 6 version of the Twins.

SP #1 - Yup, you guessed it. Lefty Chris Y. Nen is being brought back for another season of being the Twins' Ace. Though he is a few points off his ratings peak, Nen still rates as arguably the best SP in the World and with a good team behind him is poised to challenge for his sixth consecutive Cy Young Award.
Contract - Signed through S6 for $11.5M.

SP #2 - For the first time in years, there is a new #2 SP in Minnesota. No, no one was brought in via trade, but this year right-hander Gabby Martin is set to be moved up in the rotation. After an outstanding season where he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting, sporting a 15-3 record with a 1.08 WHIP and a 3.08 ERA, Martin took another step forward in the off-season and is poised to make even greater strides. Still only 23 years old, Martin has the potential to be one of the most effective pitchers in the World. His Achilles heal may be his lack of a great durability/stamina combo (only 28/62 presently), which will limit his IP over the course of a season and could potentially put some added strain on the bullpen.
Contract - With only 1 ML year under his belt, Martin is locked up for the bargain price of $360k in S6.

SP #3 - Though he struggled somewhat in the Season 5 post-season, Twins management has enough faith in lefty John Jang to bring him back in Season 6 to act as the veteran core of the rotation. Jang has been quietly spectacular for the Twins over the past 5 seasons, accumulating a career record of 67-47 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.57 ERA over 1014.1 innings. In Season 5, management called off the dogs early and rested many veterans (including Jang) down the stretch, but he still posted an impressive 13-7 Win-Loss record to go with a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.70 ERA in 175.1 IP. On many teams, he'd be considered an Ace in his own right and be the career leader in most pitching categories, but he has been overshadowed by Nen.
Contract - Management recognized his true value in the off-season, giving him a 2-year contract extension at an over 50% increase - though at only $4.6M per year, he's still a great bargain.

SP #4 - Used as a swingman last season, 27-year-old righty Vic Nitkowski is likely to move into the rotation full-time this season. In 53 games last season (9 starts) Nitkowski threw 118.1 innings, with a 13-4 record and one save, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 2.59 ERA. After enjoying a 2-point increase in OVR rating in the off-season, including an impressive 3-point jump in vRH, Twins management is confident in Nitkowski's ability to be among the best, if not THE best, #4 SP in the World.
Contract - Nitkowski is arbitration-eligible and asking for $5.7M this season. The Twins have not yet decided whether to give him a one year deal or extend him long-term for 4 years at $5.8M per.

SP #5 - It's tough to consider a season where a pitcher went 11-4 a "disappointment" but that's exactly what last season was for then-#3 SP Clay Bellhorn. Bellhorn posted a respectable 1.39 WHIP and 4.29 ERA, but management hoped for much more from the highly-rated lefty. Still only 28 years old, maybe the move to SP #5 will help remove some pressure from Bellhorn and allow him to reach his full potential.
Contract - Like Nitkowski (above) Bellhorn is arbitration-eligible this season. Perhaps recognizing he has yet to fulfill his potential, Bellhorn is asking only $1.7M for Season 6, though management is considering the option of locking him up for the same rate as Nitkowski - 4 years at $5.8M per.

Long Relief -
Paul Suzuki (LH, 93.0 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.97 ERA in S5) is the established lefty long-reliever coming out of the pen. Arbitration-eligible, he'll likely be brought back for his one-year asking price of $1.6M. The righty RP that teams can expect to see coming in for long relief is Reid Moeller. Moeller was outstanding in his first full season with the Twins, going 11-0 in 84 appearances, with a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.98 ERA. He's seeking $1.7M in arbitration. The Twins are also committed to giving lefty Brian Helling an opportunity to succeed in S6. Though he has struggled more than expected in the past, his ratings and high ceiling suggest he may be poised to break through. Making only $378k, there's the potential for a good payoff with very little risk.

Setup Pitchers -
Twins management has yet to decide what route to take with stud right-handed RP Buddy Bryne. His effectiveness is undeniable (81 G, 84.0 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 3.86 ERA in S5; 351 G, 361.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 3.58 ERA career), but he is asking for the very high sum of $7.3M in arbitration. Alternatively, he's looking for only $6.0M per in a long-term deal, but that would require a four-year commitment. Though he will almost certainly be counted on by the Twins in their S6 push, it's not clear whether he will be locked up beyond that. His left-handed counterpart, Matt Crespo, was inked to a 1-year deal in the off-season for $4.0M. Crespo has been solid for the Twins since being brought over in S3, and management is expecting him to be the lefty anchor for the pen. Following two consecutive seasons of sub-2.75 ERAs, management also brought back righty Jason White by signing him to a 2-year extension at $2.8M per. White actually led the Twins in saves last year, but since the club employed a closer-by-committee, he only totaled 9 saves. Rookies Carlos Blanco (RH, 23 years old, $343k), Timothy Kent (RH, 25 years old, $343k), Tommy McIntyre (LH, 25 years old, $343k), and Tex Sefcik (RH, 27 years old, $343k) are expected to compete with returner Ralph Bradshaw (RH, 58 G, 69 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 3.26 ERA in S5; $378k in S6) to give the Twins bullpen depth in S6. Unfortunately, Twins management wants to only carry 13 pitchers going into S6, so someone is going to be left out in the cold.

That means if you are in the market for pitching options, Minnesota is a great place to go shopping!

Friday, December 5, 2008

Happy Days in Minnesota!

"The World Champion Minnesota Twins" - Is has a nice ring to it, don't you think?

People in and around the Twin Cities certainly do, as they're still feeling the hangover from the second consecutive World Series title. Though it seems like only a few days have passed since the Twins were able to complete their post-season run, the fact is an entire off-season has gone by and now we enter season six with a clean slate.

The Twins start Season Six on equal footing with everyone else and you can be sure other teams will be gunning to knock off the defending champs. It's tough to say how the season will play out, but at least for a few days all 32 franchises can dream of this being their year. Best of luck to everyone!

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Season 5 Playoffs: American League

Better late than never (Baltimore, Tampa, Chicago and San Diego already out), he's a quick look at the next round of AL playoffs in the quest for the Season 5 Championship:

(1) Minnesota Twins (113-49) take on the (5) Cleveland Indians (88-74)
Minnesota lead season series 7-3

Can any team stop Minnesota on their way to the first repeat championship in Major Leagues history? Minnesota simply throws Nen out game 1 and practically ensures themselves a win in that game, plus the opposing teams can usually count on seeing later in the series as well. He purely dominates in the post-season. Career post-season records for Chris Nen, absurd. In 197 IP, his WHIP is a mere 0.95 while his ERA sits at 2.47. However, Cleveland clearly has the hitting to get something done here if they click on all cylinders, as the have before. Any lineup featuring Miguel Lopez and Tim Rogers is going to score some runs.

(2) Oakland Athletics (102-60) take on the (6) Boston Red Sox (88-74)
Boston lead season series 7-3

Oakland mirrors several professional Bay Area sports teams in that they are always a contender, just never for the series. A wise man once said "My sh!t just doesn't work in the playoffs." and never could there be a more accurate description of the GM in Oakland now. With no truely dominant ace, the pitching staff is going to have trouble running up against the real Aces. Edgar Alvarez and Joaquin Gongora are a real 2-headed beast in Boston. However, the Oakland lineup is full of mashers like Mo Springer, who was very impressive after being called up later in the season. Turk Weaver followed up his MVP season with a lot less impact then would be desired, and there are rumours the club could be looking to move him in the offseason. Is this his last chance to win that ring in Oakland?