Off-Season Talent Flow Revisited

Last season we did a little table that showed the "Major" (Type A and B) talent flows, expressed as numerical totals, between divisions.

As a reminder to the vets and intro to the newcomers, here's what we did:

We assigned a value of 1 to the Type B's, a value of 2 to the Type A's, and a value of 4 to the Type Super-A's (just a thing I made up for this little game).  If a team lost a Type A, that was -2 for that division.

So we just added up all the A and B free agents and Type A and B players (estimated) moving in trades, by division.

A year later we can ask, "Did that mean anything...did it predict changes in wins and losses to any degree?"

Well, let's see:

OK, we're looking for a couple of things here.  Does each column have both pluses or both minuses for each row?  If so, the pre-season A and B talent flows are predicting changes in wins in the division pretty well.

Looks like it predicted the direction of wins correctly in 6 of 8 divisions.  AL East and AL West broke counter to the prediction.

The other question is whether big talent flow changes meant big changes in wins.  It did in the AL South (+7 talent flow, +28 wins) and NL East (-6 talent flow, -37 wins), but missed on the AL West (-6 talent flow, +6 wins).  And the NL South and NL West had big jumps in wins without significant talent inflows.

Obviously, we're not picking up all the talent movement - we ignoring the vast bulk of free agents and trades, all the rookie promotions, and everything that happens after the start of the season.

We're just tracking the big-name, pre-season movement.  And while it's not a great predictor, it at least gives some indication of which divisions are going to improve win totals.

With that in mind, here's this season's pre-season talent flow table:

So prediction here is a big slide for the NL South and AL East, and better win totals for the rest of the NL, AL North and AL West.  AL South is close but slightly negative.

What's striking this year is all the activity in the NL East...lots of coming and going and a lot of players changing teams within the division.

Type Super-A's for this were Caballero, Adams, Torrealba and Casey.  Gutierrez obviously would have been a Super-A, but since he didn't change teams I didn't include him.

FA Wrapup: Jays, NL East Dominate Big Deals

Of the 7 $50 million+ contracts signed this off-season, the Blue Jays and the NL East inked 6, no doubt sparking a big lurch in competitive balance around the Major Leagues.

Let's take a look at the 5 big deals signed on the 3PM cycle:

Max Gutierrez (Washington D.C.): 5 years, $110 million.  As speculated on the world chat, Gutierrez lands the max deal as the Nats try to keep up in the brutal NL East arms race.  My guess is you can prove that most max deals hurt teams more than they help, but I like this one.  3B is generally a weak position in Major Leagues, and Gutierrez stands above (with respect to Vin Sanchez and Benji Wood).  He plays great D, rarely needs a day off, drives in 110+ runs; and, he's very likely to do so for the duration of this contract.

Calvin Nielsen (Seattle): 5 years, $68.8 million.  Interestingly, Nielsen commanded the 2nd-largest contract of the last cycle.  The 8-year vet had 104 wins and a 4.19 ERA in his Royals career - numbers that could well improve in pitcher-friendly Safeco.  Not what the rest of the AL West needs.

Rafael Rijo (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $60.8 million.  Perhaps a bit of a curious signing by the pitching-rich Buccos.  And a curious U-shaped contract - heavily front and back-loaded. All that aside, Rijo can pitch - 3.44 lifetime ERA.  Could allow the Pirates to move back to a traditional 5-man rotation - with Rijo as the #5.

Bruce Page (Toronto): 5 years, $57 million.  Page will produce...and at higher levels than he did in spacious Safeco...IF he's on the field.  Unfortunately, that hasn't happened with great regularity since Season 17.  Someone was going take this bet...if it comes up for the Jays, they may have the division wrapped up early.

Alfredo Torrealba (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $52.5 million.  If there was a bargain among the last-cycle contracts, this was it.  The relatively low durability (186 IP in his most prolific year) and control may have scared off some big bidders, but the proof is in the record: 3.29 ERA in 9 seasons, all in the hitter's paradise that is the Rangers' park.  He'll settle in as the #4 starter.

More Trades, And First Big FA Contracts

Couple more notable trades to report, and of course the Pedro Caballero signing.

The Cardinals made a move to replace the departed Matthew Casey, getting SP Harold Bynum from Arizona for 1B Elijah Perkins.

Bynum is 55-64 with a very respectable 3.91 ERA over 8 seasons with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  Perkins is a .256 career hitter with 79 HR's in 4 seasons in St. Louis.

The Marlins moved to get even younger, shipping talented but so far disappointing OF Dave Diaz to Nashville for 1B prospect Christopher Healy.

Diaz was a highly-touted (3rd overall) pick by Arizona in Season 16.  He made the majors in Season 19, posting .258/25/71 numbers.  He didn't really improve with Florida last year - .252/26/86 - and Marlins management decided to move on.

In Healy, they get Season 19's #19 pick.  He looks like he'll become an excellent on-base guy, with excellent contact ability and plate discipline.  He'll combine that with better-than average power.  Will struggle occasionally with tough righty pitchers, but overall should be an excellent hitter.

In perhaps the day's biggest news, star catcher Pedro Caballero has signed a 4-year, $65MM deal to return to Toronto.

Caballero is a 5-time All-Star (in 9 ML Seasons) and won the AL Silver Slugger in Season 18 (.321/21/73).  He's solid defensively and sports a .398 lifetime OBP.  He'll be a huge addition for the Jays, who won the AL North last year despite scoring only 734 runs.

Finally, in late-breaking news, World Major Leagues Blog has learned that Sterling Adams has just signed with the Mets for 5 years, $75MM.

Adams is just what the doctor ordered for New York, whose 700 runs last year were below the NL average.  The 9-year vet has 3 MVP's, a ROY, and multiple All-Stars and Silver Sluggers.  He'll be the power hitter the Mets have been missing as well as the left-handed balance they've been missing.

Nationals Make The First Big Move

D.C. fired the first big shot this off-season, getting ace SP Matthew Casey from the Cardinals for pitching prospects Dick Pederson and Asdrubal Rivera.

Casey has an excellent 3.57 ERA and 112 wins over 10 ML seasons.  He joins Albert Velasquez to give the Nats the 2-ace combo that seems to be a requirement to compete in the NL East.

Pederson was the #17 overall pick last year; Rivera was the 28th pick of the Season 19 draft.

In another significant deal, the Twins bolstered the attack by getting DH Cutter Nieman (along with OF prospect Javier Alberro) from the Red Sox for SP prospect Zach Lennon.

Nieman was Boston's  #1 selection (40 overall) in the Season 14 draft, and posted a promising .328/8/35 in limited action last year.  Alberro was the 41st pick of the Season 19 draft, and Lennon was picked #31 overall in Season 19.

In the only other off-season trade completed so far, Baltimore got 3B/OF Vicente Castro (Season 17 IFA), sending 2B/CF prospect Mike Wainhouse (12th overall last year) to Nashville.

Welcome to Season 21

Welcome to Major Leagues' 21st season, and a special welcome to our new owners, who have unwittingly joined up with one of the top worlds in HBD!

Season 20 was the usual tooth-and-nail struggle, with the Yankees and Pirates reprising their Season 19 World Series.  Art followed life again, with Pittsburgh claiming its 2nd straight title.

The Bucs' win makes them the only 4-time WS winner (Twins are the only 3-time winner) and extends the NL lead to 13-7.

Cincy's Miguel Rojas highlighted the individual records developments.

Rojas won his 5th Cy Young and is now within one of Chris Nen's career mark of 6.  He posted the 3rd-best OBP-against ever (.240) and the 4th-best Slugging %-against ever (.247), lowering his career-leading numbers in the process.

Finally, his 3rd-best ever WHIP of .89 lowered his career mark to a ridiculous .99.

On the career HR list, Terry Hefner gained 3 on Derrin Davenport (672 to 684), but it looks like both are going to finish up short of 700.  Hefner did make it past the magical 2000 RBI mark and stands at 2004.

Luis Escobar took over the career OBP lead over Tomas Pascual, .430 to .429.

Mike DeJean and Luis Contreras both passed Caeser Carrasquel on the career Quality Starts list - DeJean currently leads 356 to 355.

Philip Herndon recorded 37 saves to post a new career mark of 470.