Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 77-85 (3rd), missed playoffs
Offense: 810 runs (4th)
Pitching: 5.18 ERA (15th)
Major Changes
1B Freddy Forster, IF Thomas Zorilla, SP Bailey Borders departed via free agency.
Signed FA OF Brian Blair.
Traded SP Harold Bynum to St. Louis for 1B Elijah Perkins.
Promoted from minors: 2B Mariano Lima, OF Willie Flaherty, SP Mark Twitchell
Season 21 Outlook
There's a very nice core of young players here - C Nick Ball, 2B Luis Fernandez, CF Yusmeiro Ortiz (who pulled the rare GG/Silver Slugger in CF last year) - as evidenced by their 810 runs scored in Season 20. Their newcomers might even help add to that total.
But the 'Backs need pitching desperately. Closer Don Brooks is top-notch, and then, well... And there's no more hep from the minors for awhile. Could do worse than give Bailey Borders a call.
I think the young core keeps this crew ahead of Oakland in the West, but they'll need a big pitching upgrade to compete for the title.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Philadephia Phillies Season 21 Outlook
Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 73-89 (4th), missed playoffs
Offense: 770 runs (5th)
Pitching: 4.81 ERA (15th)
Major ChangesFA Departures: SP Luis Cruz, C Pedro Caballero, SP Ross Lamb, RP Arthur Howell, RP Eduardo Rosario
FA Signees: OF R.J. Henry, 2B Bob Diaz, RP Pete Isringhausen, C Cory Lindblom, SP Chico Nunez, SP Jumbo Mateo
Season 21 Outlook: The Phils feature 3 of the best at their positions in Major Leagues: 1B Tsuyoshi Tabaka (All-Star and Silver Slugger last 2 seasons, MVP Season 19), 2B Donovan O'Rourke (averaged 35 HR's, 102 RBI last 5 seasons), and SS Hector Bennett (Silver Slugger all 3 seasons). Add in returning FA's David Serra and Miguel Javier plus newcomer Cory Lindblom, and the offense is assured of putting up runs.
Pitching was the problem last year, and it remains a question mark. Cristobal Duran is a legit ace, but the rest of the rotation is a tossup. Norm Long just isn't what he was a couple of years ago, but could snap back with one more good season. Jumbo Mateo can be very good or very bad in a given year...Chico Nunez had a brilliant 3-season stretch (Seasons 14-16), but has been mostly bad since. Ruben DeLeon has been more predictable and is adequate as a back-of-the-rotation guy.
The 'pen was a total mystery last year. Al Sierra (career ERA 3.64) ballooned to 5.08 last year. Einar Duran didn't work out...Gregory May was well above his career ERA. Pete Isringhausen will help, and I expect an overall bounce-back season from this group.
Nice job retooling by Philly. This is the kind of team that can compete IF a few things happen:
1. They get the usual All-Star (or better) seasons from Tabaka, O'Rourke and Bennett (Likely);
2. They squeeze 1 more big season out of 2 of Serra, Javier and Lindblom (Could Happen);
3. The rotation's "unpredictables" (Mateo and Nunez) both break below 4.00 ERA (???);
4. They get sub-4.00 ERA seasons from 2 of their 4 primary short relievers (Likely)
OK, that's a lot of IF's in a tough division, but it sure would be entertaining if they could get to 95 wins, no?
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 73-89 (4th), missed playoffs
Offense: 770 runs (5th)
Pitching: 4.81 ERA (15th)
Major ChangesFA Departures: SP Luis Cruz, C Pedro Caballero, SP Ross Lamb, RP Arthur Howell, RP Eduardo Rosario
FA Signees: OF R.J. Henry, 2B Bob Diaz, RP Pete Isringhausen, C Cory Lindblom, SP Chico Nunez, SP Jumbo Mateo
Season 21 Outlook: The Phils feature 3 of the best at their positions in Major Leagues: 1B Tsuyoshi Tabaka (All-Star and Silver Slugger last 2 seasons, MVP Season 19), 2B Donovan O'Rourke (averaged 35 HR's, 102 RBI last 5 seasons), and SS Hector Bennett (Silver Slugger all 3 seasons). Add in returning FA's David Serra and Miguel Javier plus newcomer Cory Lindblom, and the offense is assured of putting up runs.
Pitching was the problem last year, and it remains a question mark. Cristobal Duran is a legit ace, but the rest of the rotation is a tossup. Norm Long just isn't what he was a couple of years ago, but could snap back with one more good season. Jumbo Mateo can be very good or very bad in a given year...Chico Nunez had a brilliant 3-season stretch (Seasons 14-16), but has been mostly bad since. Ruben DeLeon has been more predictable and is adequate as a back-of-the-rotation guy.
The 'pen was a total mystery last year. Al Sierra (career ERA 3.64) ballooned to 5.08 last year. Einar Duran didn't work out...Gregory May was well above his career ERA. Pete Isringhausen will help, and I expect an overall bounce-back season from this group.
Nice job retooling by Philly. This is the kind of team that can compete IF a few things happen:
1. They get the usual All-Star (or better) seasons from Tabaka, O'Rourke and Bennett (Likely);
2. They squeeze 1 more big season out of 2 of Serra, Javier and Lindblom (Could Happen);
3. The rotation's "unpredictables" (Mateo and Nunez) both break below 4.00 ERA (???);
4. They get sub-4.00 ERA seasons from 2 of their 4 primary short relievers (Likely)
OK, that's a lot of IF's in a tough division, but it sure would be entertaining if they could get to 95 wins, no?
Anaheim Angels Season 21 Outlook
Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 84-78 (2nd), missed playoffs
Offense: 790 runs (7th)
Pitching: 3.92 ERA (4th)
Major Changes
OF's Andy Wagner and Kevin Cooper left via free agency
promoted RP Cody Service
Season 21 OutlookThe Angels' offseason appears incomplete at this point, as they have neither a DH or a CF currently on their ML roster (although they used no fewer than 12 DH's last year). They have a couple of ML-ready IF's at AAA (Chris Sherman and Eduardo Mesa) who could impact the roster either directly or via trade.
Minus OF's Wagner and Cooper, Anaheim trots out largely the same ML squad as last season. On offense, Javier Melian sets the table and Coveleski (.316/33/103 - fine followup to his MVP season), Sojo (25 HR, 81 RBI) and Ayala (178 HR's in his 1st 5 seasons) clear the bases. SS Zephyr Mailman is the 2-time defending GG SS, and chips in more offense than the average SS (Silver Slugger Sea 18).
Eduardo Julio (12-9, 2.96) headlines a deep, talented rotation (all 5 had ERA's under 3.70 last year!). The didn't fare quite as well...Brian Watson was the most effective of the closer committee.
Hard team to call. The talent's there to explode up to 90 wins or more, or they could back up a bit if the rotation's performance drops off.
Right now I see them as solidly 2nd place in the division. They'll have to make some aggressive moves (and they have the resources to do so) to challenge Seattle or get into wild-card contention.
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 84-78 (2nd), missed playoffs
Offense: 790 runs (7th)
Pitching: 3.92 ERA (4th)
Major Changes
OF's Andy Wagner and Kevin Cooper left via free agency
promoted RP Cody Service
Season 21 OutlookThe Angels' offseason appears incomplete at this point, as they have neither a DH or a CF currently on their ML roster (although they used no fewer than 12 DH's last year). They have a couple of ML-ready IF's at AAA (Chris Sherman and Eduardo Mesa) who could impact the roster either directly or via trade.
Minus OF's Wagner and Cooper, Anaheim trots out largely the same ML squad as last season. On offense, Javier Melian sets the table and Coveleski (.316/33/103 - fine followup to his MVP season), Sojo (25 HR, 81 RBI) and Ayala (178 HR's in his 1st 5 seasons) clear the bases. SS Zephyr Mailman is the 2-time defending GG SS, and chips in more offense than the average SS (Silver Slugger Sea 18).
Eduardo Julio (12-9, 2.96) headlines a deep, talented rotation (all 5 had ERA's under 3.70 last year!). The didn't fare quite as well...Brian Watson was the most effective of the closer committee.
Hard team to call. The talent's there to explode up to 90 wins or more, or they could back up a bit if the rotation's performance drops off.
Right now I see them as solidly 2nd place in the division. They'll have to make some aggressive moves (and they have the resources to do so) to challenge Seattle or get into wild-card contention.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Off-Season Talent Flow Revisited
Last season we did a little table that showed the "Major" (Type A and B) talent flows, expressed as numerical totals, between divisions.
As a reminder to the vets and intro to the newcomers, here's what we did:
We assigned a value of 1 to the Type B's, a value of 2 to the Type A's, and a value of 4 to the Type Super-A's (just a thing I made up for this little game). If a team lost a Type A, that was -2 for that division.
So we just added up all the A and B free agents and Type A and B players (estimated) moving in trades, by division.
A year later we can ask, "Did that mean anything...did it predict changes in wins and losses to any degree?"
Well, let's see:
OK, we're looking for a couple of things here. Does each column have both pluses or both minuses for each row? If so, the pre-season A and B talent flows are predicting changes in wins in the division pretty well.
Looks like it predicted the direction of wins correctly in 6 of 8 divisions. AL East and AL West broke counter to the prediction.
The other question is whether big talent flow changes meant big changes in wins. It did in the AL South (+7 talent flow, +28 wins) and NL East (-6 talent flow, -37 wins), but missed on the AL West (-6 talent flow, +6 wins). And the NL South and NL West had big jumps in wins without significant talent inflows.
Obviously, we're not picking up all the talent movement - we ignoring the vast bulk of free agents and trades, all the rookie promotions, and everything that happens after the start of the season.
We're just tracking the big-name, pre-season movement. And while it's not a great predictor, it at least gives some indication of which divisions are going to improve win totals.
With that in mind, here's this season's pre-season talent flow table:
So prediction here is a big slide for the NL South and AL East, and better win totals for the rest of the NL, AL North and AL West. AL South is close but slightly negative.
What's striking this year is all the activity in the NL East...lots of coming and going and a lot of players changing teams within the division.
Type Super-A's for this were Caballero, Adams, Torrealba and Casey. Gutierrez obviously would have been a Super-A, but since he didn't change teams I didn't include him.
As a reminder to the vets and intro to the newcomers, here's what we did:
We assigned a value of 1 to the Type B's, a value of 2 to the Type A's, and a value of 4 to the Type Super-A's (just a thing I made up for this little game). If a team lost a Type A, that was -2 for that division.
So we just added up all the A and B free agents and Type A and B players (estimated) moving in trades, by division.
A year later we can ask, "Did that mean anything...did it predict changes in wins and losses to any degree?"
Well, let's see:
Looks like it predicted the direction of wins correctly in 6 of 8 divisions. AL East and AL West broke counter to the prediction.
The other question is whether big talent flow changes meant big changes in wins. It did in the AL South (+7 talent flow, +28 wins) and NL East (-6 talent flow, -37 wins), but missed on the AL West (-6 talent flow, +6 wins). And the NL South and NL West had big jumps in wins without significant talent inflows.
Obviously, we're not picking up all the talent movement - we ignoring the vast bulk of free agents and trades, all the rookie promotions, and everything that happens after the start of the season.
We're just tracking the big-name, pre-season movement. And while it's not a great predictor, it at least gives some indication of which divisions are going to improve win totals.
With that in mind, here's this season's pre-season talent flow table:
What's striking this year is all the activity in the NL East...lots of coming and going and a lot of players changing teams within the division.
Type Super-A's for this were Caballero, Adams, Torrealba and Casey. Gutierrez obviously would have been a Super-A, but since he didn't change teams I didn't include him.
Friday, November 23, 2012
FA Wrapup: Jays, NL East Dominate Big Deals
Of the 7 $50 million+ contracts signed this off-season, the Blue Jays and the NL East inked 6, no doubt sparking a big lurch in competitive balance around the Major Leagues.
Let's take a look at the 5 big deals signed on the 3PM cycle:
Max Gutierrez (Washington D.C.): 5 years, $110 million. As speculated on the world chat, Gutierrez lands the max deal as the Nats try to keep up in the brutal NL East arms race. My guess is you can prove that most max deals hurt teams more than they help, but I like this one. 3B is generally a weak position in Major Leagues, and Gutierrez stands above (with respect to Vin Sanchez and Benji Wood). He plays great D, rarely needs a day off, drives in 110+ runs; and, he's very likely to do so for the duration of this contract.
Calvin Nielsen (Seattle): 5 years, $68.8 million. Interestingly, Nielsen commanded the 2nd-largest contract of the last cycle. The 8-year vet had 104 wins and a 4.19 ERA in his Royals career - numbers that could well improve in pitcher-friendly Safeco. Not what the rest of the AL West needs.
Rafael Rijo (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $60.8 million. Perhaps a bit of a curious signing by the pitching-rich Buccos. And a curious U-shaped contract - heavily front and back-loaded. All that aside, Rijo can pitch - 3.44 lifetime ERA. Could allow the Pirates to move back to a traditional 5-man rotation - with Rijo as the #5.
Bruce Page (Toronto): 5 years, $57 million. Page will produce...and at higher levels than he did in spacious Safeco...IF he's on the field. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened with great regularity since Season 17. Someone was going take this bet...if it comes up for the Jays, they may have the division wrapped up early.
Alfredo Torrealba (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $52.5 million. If there was a bargain among the last-cycle contracts, this was it. The relatively low durability (186 IP in his most prolific year) and control may have scared off some big bidders, but the proof is in the record: 3.29 ERA in 9 seasons, all in the hitter's paradise that is the Rangers' park. He'll settle in as the #4 starter.
Let's take a look at the 5 big deals signed on the 3PM cycle:
Max Gutierrez (Washington D.C.): 5 years, $110 million. As speculated on the world chat, Gutierrez lands the max deal as the Nats try to keep up in the brutal NL East arms race. My guess is you can prove that most max deals hurt teams more than they help, but I like this one. 3B is generally a weak position in Major Leagues, and Gutierrez stands above (with respect to Vin Sanchez and Benji Wood). He plays great D, rarely needs a day off, drives in 110+ runs; and, he's very likely to do so for the duration of this contract.
Calvin Nielsen (Seattle): 5 years, $68.8 million. Interestingly, Nielsen commanded the 2nd-largest contract of the last cycle. The 8-year vet had 104 wins and a 4.19 ERA in his Royals career - numbers that could well improve in pitcher-friendly Safeco. Not what the rest of the AL West needs.
Rafael Rijo (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $60.8 million. Perhaps a bit of a curious signing by the pitching-rich Buccos. And a curious U-shaped contract - heavily front and back-loaded. All that aside, Rijo can pitch - 3.44 lifetime ERA. Could allow the Pirates to move back to a traditional 5-man rotation - with Rijo as the #5.
Bruce Page (Toronto): 5 years, $57 million. Page will produce...and at higher levels than he did in spacious Safeco...IF he's on the field. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened with great regularity since Season 17. Someone was going take this bet...if it comes up for the Jays, they may have the division wrapped up early.
Alfredo Torrealba (Pittsburgh): 5 years, $52.5 million. If there was a bargain among the last-cycle contracts, this was it. The relatively low durability (186 IP in his most prolific year) and control may have scared off some big bidders, but the proof is in the record: 3.29 ERA in 9 seasons, all in the hitter's paradise that is the Rangers' park. He'll settle in as the #4 starter.
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