Season 36: 76-86
GM: tdfactory
Offseason
Signed P's Roland Pedroia, Fautino Martin, and Zach Lennon; and defensive-specialist catchers Sam Lawrence and Rich Daniels.
Outlook
After 3 straight 70-something win seasons, the Royals seem committed to a rebuild. There are still quite a few again vets on the roster - some, like Richard Mohr, JIn-Chi Donald and Rabbit Grilli, will probably just see their contracts run out over this year and next. Henry Mercedes and 1 or 2 others could get some interest at the trade deadline.
We'll probably see Season 31's #13 pick, Shunsuke Tamura, early this season - he looks like he has a bright future as a high-batting average leadoff hitter and + defender in LF. Down the road a couple of seasons, we'll see Jarrett Moses (Sea 35 #14), Bill Williams (Sea 34 #25) and others.
Meanwhile, expect the Royals to be competitive. Pitchers like Wladimir Diaz and Pedroia aren't flashy but are curiously effective. And there are frequently some pleasant surprises left in the bats of 34 yo (Mohr), 35 yo (Grilli) and 36 yo (Donald) hitters.
Look for another 70+ win season from KC, although I don't know if that will get 2nd in the Division again.
Tampa Bay Rays
Season 36: 91-71, won Division for 4th straight year and 11th time in 12 seasons. Lost in playoffs to Cleveland in 1st round.
GM: jthornton75
Offseason
The big news here, of course, was the re-signing of ace Max Mullens for another 5 years (and $100MM). The deal takes him through age 37, and assuming the team keeps up its coaching and training investment, he should suffer only minimal ratings losses over the contract.
The 2nd big story here is Chris Freel reaching the end of the line. Free-agent success stories about over-30 power hitters are about as frequent as triple plays, but Freel was certainly one. Over his age 32-36 seasons, he averaged 32 HR's and 98 RBI, for an average salary of just over $10million.
Outlook
The Rays philosophy this offseason is try to squeeze a little more out of these guys before they die. 76% of the opening day roster will be over the age of 30 and 6 of those are 35+. The pitching staff returns with almost no changes and the changes on offense should improve the defense a little while not losing anything on offense besides maybe a little power. Billy George (Sea 33 #82 overall) will join the ML roster at some point, likely after an injury to an aging veteran. I expect this season to be similar to the past few. Good enough to compete for the division title and get in the playoffs, but needing quite a bit of luck to advance deep in the playoffs. Ultimately our hopes will ride on the backs of the duo Mullens and Hudson at SP
-- jthornton75
Texas Rangers
Season 36: 51-111
GM: pstrnutbag44
Offseason
Big offseason for the Rangers, trading for C/DH William Ryu, SS Duke Kulik, and P Dwight Becker; and signing Julio Montanez (RP), Harry Flores (2B), Marc James (P), Orval Wilkins (P), P.T Wong (Rule V pitcher), Herbert Coleridge (Rule V pitcher), Freddy Conner (P), Santos Gardel (P), Burt Garcia (P), Miguel Veras (SS), and Ron Easley (C).
Outlook
Despite the flurry of activity, Texas didn't change up its offense dramatically. They added some pop by moving Glendon Logan (their best hitter) in to be the primary C, and then signing Ryu, but otherwise the lineup should be much the same as last year's 692 run edition.
Defense and pitching is where the changes really are. Veras and Kulik will be a vast improvement at SS over last year's Nicholas Turner fiasco (41 errors). Turner will share 2B with Flores, and they'll be a big upgrade over the trio of OF's who manned 2B last year (18 errors, 15 bad plays). Basile and Kohlmeier are still their 2 best pitchers; I'm not wildly enthusiastic about all the new P's, but they should be able to handily beat last year's 5.21 ERA.
Look for a nice improvement in Texas. 75 wins? I don't think they'll contend, but if Tampa Bay gets old this year who knows?
Nashville Sounds
Season 36: 68-94
GM: bperkins
Offseason
Pretty quiet transaction season in Nashville - no ML free agent signings and just one trade (bringing in DH Graham Peters and P A.J. Post).
Nonetheless, there are still a lot of new (and almost-new) faces on the ML roster via promotion. The most notable os probably CF Ichiro Chong, the #7 pick of the Season 33 draft. The 22-year old switch-hitter will likely struggle against lefthanders, but has plus power, a very good eye, and blinding speed.
Outlook
Their top 2 starters, Alex Mercado and Bernie Martinez, both pitched better than their career norms last year (way better in Martinez' case), so I worry a little about regression this year. The bullpen isn't star-studded by any stretch, but Palmerio has been very effective his first 2 seasons, and the group has generally been pretty good. They were just above the league-average ERA last year...I"d expect much the same.
The offense only managed 683 runs last year - tied for 14th in the AL. But the lineup is where their youth and upside resides. They could surprise us with 725 runs this year.
This is the only team in the division that has a youth movement arriving on its ML roster. Young teams have a way of jumping up and surprising you...so if there's any big surprises in the South this year, I think they will involve the Sounds.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season 36: 45-117
GM: DodgerBlue13
Offseason
Having never heard of a rebuilding process, new GM DodgerBlue13 took over the reigns of the historically bad Dodgers (45-117) and immediately attempted to make the team competitive while also slashing payroll from $95M to $78M.
The process began with clearing payroll from last season by waiving ace Otto Little (P) and his hindering $20M salary, and hoping he's claimed, which he is by the Mariners.
Under-performing Andrew Wathan (3B) ($8.4M last season), is allowed to leave via free agency (interestingly, also picked up by the Mariners). And Kosuke Takada (3B) ($7.4M last season) is traded to the D-Backs for Martin Clayton (P) and a pair of prospects.
This new payroll flexibility allowed the Dodgers to make the a flurry of roster moves to augment face-of-the-franchise Dan Ross (LF), completely changing the makeup of the team.
The following are the new members of the Dodgers big league roster for season 37: Cy James (3B) signed for 5/82 to be the new starting 3B; Jemile Frazier (RF) signed for 5/42 to play RF; Joakim Henriquez (1B) and his career .392 OBP signed for $1.6M to take over at 1B for Quentin Blair (2B), who will shift over to 2B; Jun Lee (C) (season 33 #50 overall) will take over behind the plate; Haywood Shumpert (1B) was claimed off waivers to provide power off the bench; Jair Cortez (SS) (season 31 IFA $18M) tries to live up to his prospect hype as the new starting shortstop; Russ Hiljus (P) signed for 3/22 to be the new staff ace; Martin Clayton (P) was acquired in the Takada trade to take a spot at the back of the rotation; Bernie Martin (P) was acquired from Pittsburgh for a pair of prospects to be the primary left-handed setup man; and Kane Bailey (P) was claimed off waivers and will pitch out of the bullpen.
In addition, the Dodgers used their prime draft position to pick up a pair of potential starting pitchers in the rule 5 draft, Marcell Trinidad (P) and Billy Foster (P) .
DodgerBlue13 is under no illusion his team will compete for the title, but he believes all these moves will at least make the team competitive and provide a big step forward from the nightmare 117 losses of last season.
-- DodgerBlue13
Outlook
So what do these wholesale changes mean for the Bums? Well, throw out last season and the disastrous start under previous management. In Season 35, the Dodgers won 76 games and finished 12 back of the 88 game-winning Rockies (who won 88 again last year). So that's our starting place.
LA scored 612 runs in Season 35, and really only got a good season from Ross (.282/28/102), with the departed Wathan and Takada disappointing (again). Lee should be a big upgrade at C - their most-used C that year, Henry Young, OPS'd all of .665. Henriquez is not going to return to his Angels All-Star form at age 37, but he can still get to first (a much-needed talent, given last year's .294 team OBP). Did they overpay for James? Maybe, but he's a relatively young FA (30), 3B overall is not a highly productive offensive position in this world, and James' value going forward from here is not tied solely to a high power rating. I think this is a great pickup for LA (even with a solid 3B situation in Pittsburgh, we were pushing the bidding on James). The final big offensive addition is RF Frazier, and he should be the primary power threat. Yes, most of his value is tied up in that 96 power rating, which will undoubtedly drop over the course of his contract. But he should more than earn his salary for the first 3 years of his contract, and if they're lucky, his mid-30's resemble those of Chris Freel (see Tampa Bay preview). I like this team to reach 680 runs...maybe more. That would probably put them around #8 or #9 in the NL, and certainly competitive with the top offenses.
The pitching is less certain, but I sure like some of the moves. Their team ERA in Season 35 was a respectable 3.86 - 11th in the NL. The effort featured a 3.30 ERA by Ali Garces in 185 IP, a 3.72 in 186 IP by Little, and a 3.74 in 192 IP by Fernando Diaz (those were the 3 leaders in IP that year). Garces and Diaz had comparable seasons last year, so it's not crazy to expect similar numbers from them. Hiljus has a 3.67 career ERA in Oakland (similar ballpark to Dodger Stadium, so he could be a great replacement for Little at a much lower ticket price.
Cincinnati Reds
Season 36: 81-81
GM: wrecks
Offseason
With a protected pick this year, management decided that the rebuild is over and dove into the Type A market by signing both Wayne Counsell (P) and Mitch Mirabelli to bolster a weak bullpen. We also signed middle of the order bat Gerald Crane (RF) and will be calling up top prospects Ramon Baek (2B) (Season 35 #3 overall), Richie Graves (SS) (Season 34 #2 overall), and Corban Parnell (P) (Season 34 #7 overall).
Outlook
With a solid starting staff led by Pablo Suarez (P) and a rebuilt bullpen, the pitching should be solid. The addition of Crane to Stan Robinson (2B) , and the power-hitting prospects should improve the offense from last year. The team has a few holes, including no real leadoff hitter and is very young, but the future is bright. We are expecting to battle for the division and hope at minimum to make the playoffs.
-- wrecks
Atlanta Braves
Season 36: 92-70. Lost the final three games of the season to miss out on the division, and ultimately the wildcard as well.
GM: majnun
Offseason
The Braves lost three major players from the previous season: 2b Cy James ($82 million to the Dodgers), RP extraordinaire Wayne Counsell ($100.5 million to the Reds) and 3b Hal Hernandez (traded to the Cardinals mid-season). Defensive SS Blake Neal was traded to the Diamondbacks to replenish the bullpen, and 4/5 starter Hyun-Jin Dong was traded to the Yankees for Michael Judd, to replace Neal. Free Agency resulted in Elvis Snow manning Center Field, and Alvin Phillips beefing up the rotation.
Outlook
Atlanta scored more (727) and allowed fewer (571) than the division and world series-winning Cardinals, and had an Expected Winning Percentage 34 points higher than the rest of the division (foiled by a just-bad-enough 30-26 record in 1-run games). The team expects to absorb the losses of Hernandez and James pretty easily, but Counsell hurts. The Braves have little depth and will need to be injury free. If the new bullpen can be almost as good as last year, the rotation should be much improved and better equipped for a playoff run. The Braves, as always, expect to win the division.
-- majnun
Milwaukee Brewers
Season 36: 56-106
GM: mjdato
Offseason
The Brew Crew said goodby to longtime face-of-the-franchise Ubaldo Maduro this offseason. Maduro made 4 All-Star squads and snagged 2 SS Silver Sluggers in his 10- season Milwaukee career. The team played sparingly in free agency, inking just a pair (so far) of infielders (Bernie Lugo and Giomar Corpas) to 1-year deals.
Instead, they've filled ML roster spots with players from their farm system like Louis Snow (a #50 pick) and Jimmie Busby (4th rounder). On the eve of Spring Training, they still have some roster-building to do.
Outlook
The ML roster is much younger but very thin. Frankly, they've got minor leaguers plugged in at a few spots and quite marginal major-leaguers at many others. With what they currently have (still 3 position spots to fill assuming 14 position players), it's hard to see them matching last year's 590 runs. Last year's team ERA was 4.86 and the prognosis there is not good, either. Their mwr for this year is 69 games and it's really going to take some luck for them to approach that number of wins.
