Offseason Day 5: Twins Go Max For Osuna, Little To Nationals

Activity has picked up again after the usual early-FA lull, with a few big name free agents starting to sign, and another Reds/Astros trade:

A & B Free Agent Signings

San Diego signs 2B Ugueth Gonzalez for 1 year, $6MM
Analysis:  Gonzalez might be the "perfect San Diego player": great contact and eye, little power, excellent speed and base-running skills, superior range on defense.  The Pads still have a lot of holes to fill, but this is a great start.

Nashville signs 3B Gil Sodowsky for 4 years, $20MM
Analysis:  Sodowsky is a far cry from the SS who was hitting 40HR's a year a few years back in Arizona, but he can still be effective, especially in a smaller ballpark like Herschel Greer.  I am concerned about the last 2 years of this contract (his age 36 and 37 years), when hitters usually go into a really steep decline.

Pittsburgh signs RP Hector Cruz for 5 years, $29MM
Analysis: Even after adding Moya (bringing to staff to the normal 11), the Buccos decide to add a 12th pitcher - a 3rd lefty to the 'pen to battle the Mets' lefty-dominated lineup.

Montreal signs RP Adrian Caruso for 1 year, $4.4MM
Analysis: Career ERA of 3.10...proof positive that pitches matter.

Tampa Bay signs 1B/OF Orval Miller for 5 years, $50MM
Analysis: was arguably the best hitter in this year's (weak) FA class.  High price?  Maybe, but not egregiously so.  He'll only be 34 at the end of this contract, so his only ratings hits (that matter) will probably be to power.  He's an .852 career OPS, and it's not out of the question that he'll maintain that for 5 more seasons.

Philadelphia signs RP Miguel Valdez for 4 years, $25.2MM.  
Analysis: first glance at his ratings, you might think Valdez would be especially susceptible to lefty hitters.  Maybe, but I think the pitches offset that some, and you can't argue with the results: 9 straight seasons below 4 ERA.  And as his Season 32 shows, he can throw up to 160 innings (probably even a few more).  Very nice pickup for the Phils.

Tampa Bay signs RP Esmil Gonzalez for 2 years, $13MM.
Analysis: similar to Valdez, ratings-wise, although he's been a little less consistent.  Certainly if you were looking for a quality, big-innings middle reliever, these were the 2 on your list.  The Rays are coming off just their 2nd playoff absence in 13 seasons, so no surprise they're hitting free agency hard.

Minnesota signs SP Luis Osuna for 5 years, $110MM
Analysis: first big shoe drops, and a day earlier than we expected. The Twins decide to abandon their famous "all-relief" strategy, at least once every 5 days.  Or will zbrent think of a different way to use his new 240-inning ace?

Atlanta signs SP Midre Espinosa for 5 years, $95.5MM
Analysis:...followed closely by the 2nd big shoe.  At the moment, I think Espinosa is a slightly better pitcher than Osuna.  OF course, this contract takes him through age 40, so there will be some dropoff.  I see the Braves continue to employ a 97-Pitching IQ pitching coach, which I'm sure they'll go to great lengths to retain.  And I'd bet they keep that training budget at $20MM for the next 5 years.  With Espinosa's decently high makeup (79), he's got a very good chance to still be very productive at 40.

Analysis: the Braves have executed a very deft offseason plan.  It looked like they might start a retooling with the trade of Hunter; then they turned around and picked up Orlando Figueroa for nothing that would ever see their ML roster. Essentially they turned Hunter into Figueroa and Arismendy Johnson (their shiny new 3B).  Then they add Espinosa. Maybe not as loud an offseason as Cininnati's or Pittsburgh's, but every bit as effective.

Arizona signs RP Doug Stoops for 2 years, $9.6MM
Analysis: a notch below Valdez and Gonzalez among the robust middle relievers.  Looks like he'll get an increased workload - the D'Backs have 14 position players on the roster, which suggests an 11-man pitching staff.  Without Midre Espinosa's 250 innings on the staff, everyone's going to have to step up with more innings.

Tampa Bay signs 3B Bart Sanders for 1 year, $3.6MM
Analysis:  3rd Type A/B signing in rapid succession for the Rays. Sanders wasn't a world-beater for Detroit last year (.701 OPS), but if he repeats that performance it'll end up being a nice budget signing.

Trades

Cincinnati gets 1B/OF Danny Barr
Houston gets 3B Thomas Seanez and  OF Omir Bryant
Analysis: Another power bat for the Reds, although the all-or-nothing Barr is hardly a sure thing.  His .311 OBP was perfectly OK when he hit 50 HR's (Season 36 - .862 OPS), but that .270 last year didn't look so good even with 33 HR's (.665 OPS). I don't think Reds' management is going to think twice about this deal, though - the team may well hit 300 bombs this year.  The Astros get another young good glove, so-so bat in Seanez, plus an OF who is probably a 2-3 year stopgap at best.

Washington D.C. gets SP Otto Little
Seattle gets C/DH Keury Spehr (Season 37 #28) and OF Erisbel Soto (Season 36 IFA, $31.8MM)
Analysis:  As big as any trade or signing this offseason.  The Nationals have pulled off an even bigger "rebuild head-fake" than the Braves did.  When they moved Petkovsek, Cervantes and Hughes early on, it looked for sure like they were starting a rebuild.  But they did get 2 ML regulars in the Pirates deal (in addition to 1 of the top pitching prospects around).  And now they flip the take from the Hughes trade (Soto) plus one more prospect into a big-time ace.

Key to this trade:  apparently Little is willing to sign a team-friendly long-term deal, presumably in the ballpark of the $7.6MM/year of his first LTC.

D.C.'s rotation now sports a front 3 of Camacho, Little and Spruill - pretty formidable group if they can get to the playoffs out of the tougher-than-ever NL East.

Seattle landed a pretty nice pair of prospects for Little, and they lop a big chunk off their payroll (although I don't think time for tomorrow's 3PM cycle when the rest of the competitive free agents will sign)

Offseason Day 4: A Light Day For A and B Free Agents

A few more trades have hit, but it was a light first day of signing for Type A and B free agents.  No doubt the bidding will extend into Saturday for free agency's big names.

Some interesting themes have started to emerge:  Can Cincinnati possibly pack more talent onto its roster?  It has no doubt entered the elite of the NL.  What's going on with AL Champ Arizona?  A couple of small trades for DH's, but relatively quiet.  Houston has remade itself a couple of times over already, but Tony Moya remains an Astro (and rumor has it he may for awhile).  The NL (Houston, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Mets) has dominated the trade scene; will the AL dominate free agency?

Day 4's activity so far:

A & B FA Signings

Detroit signs IF Tori Hatcher for 4 years, $23.7MM
Analysis: Tigers step up early for who I think will be their new 2B.  Montero slides over to 3B, so Hatcher is replacing the departed Bart Sanders.  Hatcher and Sanders are basically equivalent hitters; their infield defense might be a tad better.

Boston signs SP Derrek Helton for 5 years, $38MM
Analysis:  pretty big commitment for a guy with a 4.37 career ERA.  Then again, he could end up being their best starter - their #4 and 5 starters had ERA's of 4.60 and 4.80 last year, and their top starter, Doug Mateo, has had a number of full seasons in the upper 4's as well.

Houston signs C Harry Ugueto for 2 years, $6.0MM
Analysis:  Astros add to the stable of defensive-whiz catchers.  The trade of Roberts opens the door for Ugueto to be the everyday C (he has the DUR for it), or at least the vR part of a platoon.

Kansas City signs RP Domingo Chavez for 3 years, $18MM
Analysis:  Free agency had whittled away the Royals' short-reliever corps - Chavez become their prime late-innings righty.

Milwaukee signs OF Sidney Larkin for 2 years, $9.4MM
Analysis:  Nice economical signing of a good-contact (.276 last year), still-20-HR hitter.  Looks like Larkin will be the fulltime LF.

Philadelphia signs Shigetoshi Shinjo for 4 years, $24.8MM
Analysis:  Shinjo is just a good player.  On top of his sterling defense, he's hit 20+ HR's 8 years in a row.  I doubt he'll continue that to the end of this contract, but it's still a good signing.  Not sure who plays where yet in Philly's IF/CF alignment, but I'd bet Shinjo starts somewhere.

Trades
Montreal gets DH Rudy House
Cleveland gets SP Kris Taylor (Season 37 #53), RP Robel Holbert (Season 34 11th Round, DITR), and OF Babe Balfour (Season 37 Round 3)
Analysis:  I'm a little puzzled at this move by the Tribe, as they have a nice batch of prospects ready to promote (to go along with last Season's prized rookie, Desmond Farmer). It's not like Kendry Fernandez lit it up as a DH (.238/19/60). In any event, House will move to Montreal, where his role is unclear.  Will we see a resurgence of DH's playing RF (Pittsburgh for sure, maybe Montreal).  Of the prospects the Indians got, Taylor has the best chance at a ML role (4/5 starter LR).

Chicago Cubs get C Robert Roberts
Houston gets RP Ryan Rose
Analysis:  Roberts is a capable backstop, although not the defensive savant the new Houston management favors.  Not quite sure what the Cubbies will do with him, as they currently have 3 C's on the ML roster.  Rose is a 4A-to-bottom-of-the-staff type...maybe exactly the type that very high-PC catchers can improve enough to make him effective.

LATE-BREAKING: MOYA TO PIRATES
Pittsburgh gets Tony Moya + $5MMM
Houston gets SP LaTroy Owen (Season 33 19th Round), IF/CF David Richmond (Season 29 #55), and IF/CF Eduardo Chavez (Season 33 IFA, $9.9MM)

The 'Stros land a pretty good pitcher (especially for a 19-rounder), albeit one with health concerns, plus a pair of nice defenders for Moya.  Let's face it, no one was going to make this deal except the Pirates (and that was far from certain), and no one was going to value players like Richmond and Chavez as highly as Houston.  Owen immediately joins the rotation, Chavez becomes the starting SS, and I'm sure Richmond has a ML role somewhere.  The Pirates' staff now has a front 4 of Moya, Roque, Baerga and Watson; Ernesto for 7 and 8, and Cervantes closing (if the damn Mets can beat that they deserve to win!)

Day 3 Trades: Pace Slows As FA Begins

Well, free agency has started without a Tony Moya trade (although we still expect it will happen), and the frenetic pace of the first 2 days of the offseason has tailed off to a trickle. Here are the rest of Day 2 and Day 3's trades, which I think catches us up:

Chicago White Sox get RP Breland Nanita
Houston gets C Bill Kershaw
Analysis:  Not a big move by either team.  This is the second ace defensive C Houston has acquired - their future pitching staff will love those guys.  The White Sox seem to be headed into a transition period as the Magglio era winds down - if they go full-on rebuild Nanita is the kind of P that can help hold things together for minimum $$.

Houston gets 2B/3B Armando Bazardo (Sea 32 IFA, $13.8MM)
Florida gets RP Yunesky Baez (Sea 31 IFA, $8.5MM)
Analysis:  Bazardo has been languishing in Florida's farm system for a couple of years now; I think he'll find a spot on the 'Stro's big club, maybe as a backup 2B/3B/CF.  No power, but decent splits and a ML eye.  Baez might make the Marlins as an 11th or 12th pitcher, but I'd bet more on a glorious AAA career.

Houston gets P Garry Perez (Season 30 #70)
Arizona gets IF/CF Donne Lloyd (Season 37 #59)
I wondered earlier how Arizona managed 779 runs with that lineup last year; cbriese later pointed out the team's 126 infield hits (2nd in the world to Minnesota's 175) as a contributor.  Now take a look at Lloyd's speed rating and you get a whole new take on this trade.

San Francisco gets SS Jiggs Maduro
Minnesota gets prospects Quinton Graves (Season 37 #35), Joshua Haynes (Season 335 #85), and Juan Estrada (Season 36 IFA, $50K)
Analysis:  Giants pick up a SS who can at least play defense at the ML level for 3 career minor-leaguers

Offseason Day 2: Reds and Astros Crank It Up

If anything, Day 2 exceeded the pace of a hectic Day 1, with the Astros jumping into the unwinding/rebuilding process. Here are the rest of Day 1's trades, along with most of Day 2's (I think).  The shoe that didn't drop:  Tony Moya

St. Louis gets RP prospect Vincent Lasker
Houston gets 2B/CF Ken Saunders
Analysis:  Astros get an imminently usable defensive player to help keep the team ERA down during the coming rebuild. Lasker will have to develop quite a bit more to have a ML role, but he has an outside chance at it.

Pittsburgh gets DH Enerio Amaro and SP LaTroy Owen
Anaheim gets Julio Pena (Sea 37 IFA, $16.5MM)
Analysis:  The Angels signal a rebuild by trading their best hitter and a good young pitcher for their future franchise centerpiece.  Pena projects to be a defensive monster at 2B, 3B, CF with a very good eye and plus power.  Yes, the Pirates are going to close their eyes and send Amaro out to RF.

Cincinnati gets SP Al Rosado + $5MM
Oakland gets OF Desi Vazquez and IF prospect Javy Flande
Another great pickup at a nice price for Cincy.
Analysis:  Rosado gives the Reds an accomplished lefty in their formerly all-righthanded rotation, an important component at playoff time when facing the tough lefty-dominated lineups of the Mets and Pirates.  Vazquez and Flande won't lead the A's to the promised land, but will be competent ML'ers.

Chicago Cubs get closer David Estrella and C Buck Causey
Los Angeles gets SS Marcos Profar and OF prospect Pat Ashley
Analysis:  Estrella is an enigma: he looks like he should be one of Major Leagues' top short relievers, but he's posted a 4.48 ERA in his first 3 seasons (in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium at that).  The Cubs were willing to take a chance on him; Dodgers get a much-needed defensive upgrade at SS, while Jair Cortez likely still gets 450 AB's as a 4 or 5-position super-utilityman.

Arizona gets DH Carlos Gonzalez
San Francisco gets pitching prospect Murray Hellweg
Analysis:  The D'Backs took the AL by storm last year with a pitching and defense strategy that produced a surprising 779 runs (3rd in AL).  This move suggests they think they need more punch...Gonzalez takes over at DH and Mendoza returns to OF duty.  Hellweg was last year's #22 pick - he has a long way to go but could grow into a #5 starter or long reliever.

Houston gets SP Patrick Pierce
Toronto gets SP Jim Hansen and RP Abraham Robinson
The Astros have decided to bite the bullet and get what they can for the remnants of the squad that won 4 titles in 5 years (trying to coax 1 more year of contention was probably a losing game).  So even though what they gave here were minor-leaguers, Pierce fits the profile of what they're assembling:  competent ML'ers who will keep them above the mwr on the cheap.

New York Mets get CF Dean Whitfield and IF Gabriel Sanchez (Sea 34 #15)
Philadelphia gets 3B Davey Ontiveros (Sea 34 IFA, $35MM) and SP Nestor Bautista (Sea 35 #9)
Analysis:  Fascinating deal on many levels.  First, the Mets add perhaps the best CF in Major Leagues.  Second, it's a huge upgrade for them; last year's CF's (Brian Kim and Benito Oilvo) were good defenders but pure popguns on offense.  Third, they were able to swing the deal without giving up any core players or prospects - Ontiveros was blocked at 3B by Rico Lopez (only 3 years older) and Bautista, despite being a talented pitcher who's still improving, wasn't going to crack the rotation.  Philly gets younger and adds 2 key pieces - Ontiveros likely becomes the 3B with Karl Floyd moving to CF, and Bautista and his 3 80+ pitches moves right into the rotation.

Baltimore gets RP Len Connelly
Houston gets C Juan Limon
Analysis:  Birds improve their 'pen, Stros keep adding defense.  It doesn't look like Limon will make Houston's ML roster this year, as they have 2 decent C's under contract. But the 36-yo Roberts is likely done after this year; Limon is a defensive genius and will do wonders to help keep opponents' scoring down.

Cincinnati gets RP Jaime Aldridge
Houston gets SP Bailey Ramirez (Sea 33 #64) and RP Garrett Washington (Sea 34 #111)
Analysis:  Houston continues to shed payroll and the Reds continue to pick up talent at bargain prices - in this case a pretty solid reliever (Aldridge has a career 3.73 ERA in 685 IP).   I don't think Ramirez will crack the ML roster, but Washington might, despite being a soft-toss fly-baller.

Cincinnati gets SP/LR Justin Zagone
Los Angeles gets RP Juan Carlos Torres
Salary dumper by the Dodgers.  It doesn't look like Zagone can make Cincy's rotation - maybe he makes it as a LR, or maybe they stash him in AAA as injury insurance.  Torres could see ML duty but is probably destined for AAA success.

Detroit gets SP Jim Colin
Houston gets prospects Trevor Conway (Sea 37 #19) and Matty Santana (Sea 35 IFA, $17.5MM), and SS Al Vincente
Analysis:  Detroit is feeling the pressure to keep the contention window open for the duration of the Manuel Cano era; Colin is a major improvement at the #2 slot in the rotation.  Given Colin's salary, I think the 'Stros did pretty well getting those 2 pitchers.  I'd like to see Santana get about 4-5 more points across the board in this, his 4th pro season.

Houston gets SP Les Reed
Cincinnati gets RP Troy Griffith
Analysis:  Reds and Astros strike again with a starter-for-reliever swap.  Both players are in their contract years and I'd be surprised if either have long careers from this point, but they'll both have ML roles for this season.

Arizona gets DH Philip Charles
Pittsburgh gets IF/CF Bernie Gennett
Not  quite sure why the D'Backs made this deal given their earlier pickup of Carlos Gonzalez, but Gennett didn't see much action for them last year and they have loads of defensive stoppers.  Gennett returns to the team that drafted him (2nd round, Season 33) as a late-innings defensive replacement.

Rebuilds, Retooling and Pirates Prospects In First Offseason Trades

I don't know if it set any new records, but let's just say trade activity in the offseason's first day was "extremely brisk". Here's a rundown of the first few trades with a brief analysis of each:

Pittsburgh gets OF J.B Hunter + $4MM
Atlanta  gets $28.7MM IFA Arismendy Johnson (Season 35)
Analysis:  Pretty hefty price for the inconsistent Hunter, but he's still fairly young, fairly cheap, available, and the Pirates needed OF help more than anything.  Johnson could be an All-Star 3B as early as this year - big jump-start to the Braves' re-tooling.

Cincinnati gets CF Darrell Hughes
Washington D.C. gets OF prospect Erisbel Soto (Sea 36 IFA, $31.8MM)
Analysis: Hughes brings a 200-point career OPS advantage versus last year's CF, the decidedly defensive Enrique Johnson.  That's a great pickup as the Reds seek to join (and surpass) the NL's top echelon.  First move in the D.C. retooling - watch these guys...it's not going to take long to rework all these prospects into a contender.

New York Yankees get CF Derrick Lewis
Montreal gets minor-league 3B/OF Radhames Borbon
Analysis:  Looks kind of like a salary dump by the Expos, although I'd have thought they could've arb'd Lucas a 3rd time for the minimum.  Yankees get a pretty nice defensive CF/pinch runner type (93 SB's in 100 attempts over 5 seasons) who could conceivably be the vR part of a CF platoon.  Borbon will never see the Majors.

Montreal gets Roland Kent (Sea 33 #79) and P.T. Harper (Sea 37 #39)
Atlanta gets OF Orlando Figueroa
Analysis:  Undoubtedly a salary move by the Expos; Kent and Harper might get ML shots but won't amount to much. Meanwhile, perhaps Atlanta's early trade of OF Hunter was a rebuild head-fake.  Maybe they thought Figueroa would be an upgrade over Hunter, plus they landed a top prospect in the switch.

Washington D.C. gets Season 36 $35MM IFA Jimmie Velazquez, OF Leonardo Grimm, and RP Alan Carpenter 
Pittsburgh gets OF Chris Petkovsek and closer Adalberto Cervantes.  
Analysis: Huge haul for the Nats.  The Pirates better win something in the next 2 years, as Petkovsek probably has a useful life of 2 more seasons, and Cervantes will likely go to free agency in 2 more years. D.C. is accumulating prospects like crazy, and in Velazquez they got one of the best pitching prospects in all of Major Leagues - after just 2 seasons both splits are at 80 and could end up above 90.