We scoured the workout data. We've interviewed the crusty old minor league managers. We've driven the dusty back roads from the Dominican Republic to Walla Walla, Washington to talk with high-school coaches. All this to bring you THE TOP POSITION PLAYER PROSPECTS IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.
1. Albert Santayana, IF (SEA): This Season 15 int'l free agent could play at the major-league level now, but Seattle has chosen the conservative route and starts the future superstar at AA. Santayana has incredible power and a great eye; he looks like he'll eventually have pretty low strikeout totals for a power hitter. If there's a flaw with his hitting, it's a weakness against LHP, but I think he'll be OK there. Defensively, Albert will have terrific range and a strong arm. At this point it looks like his glove may end up being a little shaky for 2B or 3B, but that depends largely on his development this season. If he ends up in the OF, he'll add a boatload of Gold Gloves to his Silver Sluggers and MVP's.
2. Hector Bennett, IF (PHI): You know Season 15 was a big IFA year when this guy was only the 2nd-best of the bunch. He'll have excellent contact skills plus very good power - probably 25-35 HR's, even in Seattle. His eye didn't develop as well as his other skills last year, but it's already decent, so he should able to put up respectable walk totals. He already has B+ speed, and as his baserunning skills develop further he'll become a pretty good weapon on the basepaths. Defensively, he's growing into a quality 3B...maybe even GG-quality. 2B will be an option, although I think that arm strength could be wasted there.
3. Melvin Charleston, 2B (SD): The unpolished "tools guy" among the top prospects...we know he's a great athlete, but can only guess at what kind of ballplayer he'll be. We know he's already a pretty advanced hitter, except that good righties can shut him down. Based on his current contact and eye, though, I think he'll be pretty good against righties (with the occasional really "off" year). Given his sprinter's speed, he could see some .330+ seasons. His power might reach 30-HR levels. I don't think his speed is going to translate into steals, though, as his baserunning instincts are atrocious. His defensive talent is range; depending on his development his glove will take him to so-so to pretty good at 2B.
4. Len Sullivan, CF (PIT): We move from the unknown to the pretty-well-baked. Sullivan was Season 14's #1 pick and he's not likely to disappoint the Pirates fans. He looks to be a .300 hitter with 70-75 walks thrown in and maybe 20-HR power. He's another speedburner, but his baserunning skills are just OK - think 30-35 SB. Defensively he won't be a great CF but it's clearly his position for now. Look for his major-league debut this season.
5. Luke Gleason, OF (CHI): Season 15's third pick is a big righty masher who will love hitting HR's (often) in Wrigley Field. All hitters have up and down years, but I think this guy's down years will be 45 HR's. He could top 60 a few times. He'll be a better-than-adequate baserunner for a slugger. Defensively, he'll be a pretty good corner OF or a really good 1B.
Honorable mention: Jim Garcia, 3B (LAA); Julio Osoria, OF (CHI), Jumbo Bravo, IF (ATL)
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Friday, October 28, 2011
Top Prospects Series - Defense
OK, now for the defensive wizards. Note that these are the best defenders among the top prospects, not the best defensive guys who are career minor leaguers or even average major leaguers.
1. Jumbo Bravo, IF (ATL): cannon arm and great range...his glove will probably fall short of GG-SS caliber, but he'll get the job done.
2. Hector Bennett, IF (PHI): range and arm strength as good as you'll find anywhere...glove and accuracy probably mean he's a 3B.
3. Luis Fernandez, IF (FLA): best glove among the top prospects; range and arm strength will be lacking for a SS.
4. Jim Garcia, 3B (LAA): best arm strength among top prospects
5. Albert Santayana, IF (SEA): As if this guy isn't a good enough prospect on offense alone. Only question is what position his glove will let him play...he might get to 3B or 2B territory. If not, he'll be a Gold-Glove OF who leads the league in assists.
Honorable mention: CF Len Sullivan (PIT), CF Eugenio Cubillan (NYM), 2B Melvin Charleston (SD)
1. Jumbo Bravo, IF (ATL): cannon arm and great range...his glove will probably fall short of GG-SS caliber, but he'll get the job done.
2. Hector Bennett, IF (PHI): range and arm strength as good as you'll find anywhere...glove and accuracy probably mean he's a 3B.
3. Luis Fernandez, IF (FLA): best glove among the top prospects; range and arm strength will be lacking for a SS.
4. Jim Garcia, 3B (LAA): best arm strength among top prospects
5. Albert Santayana, IF (SEA): As if this guy isn't a good enough prospect on offense alone. Only question is what position his glove will let him play...he might get to 3B or 2B territory. If not, he'll be a Gold-Glove OF who leads the league in assists.
Honorable mention: CF Len Sullivan (PIT), CF Eugenio Cubillan (NYM), 2B Melvin Charleston (SD)
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Top Prospects Series - Offense
Which teams will get the best offensive help from their minors in the next few seasons? Looks like the Mariners claim the next mega-star, and the Phillies have two of the top five offense-skills prospects.
1. Albert Santayana, 3B/2B (SEA): best power prospect in the league adds very good contact skills plus an excellent batting eye. Capable of .340, 60+ HR's and multiple MVP's.
2. Melvin Charleston, 2B (SD): great contact, 30-HR power, superb eye and blazing speed will translate into excellent all-round numbers. Only question mark is how well he'll fare against RHP.
3. Tsuyoshi Tabaka, 1B (PHI): gotta love the lefty power hitter who makes good contact and kills lefties. Won't lead the league in walks, but will get his share.
4. Len Sullivan, CF (PIT): another burner...may end up with the best walk totals among the league's prospects. Will handle lefties adequately and toss in 20-25 HR's.
5. Hector Bennett, IF (PHI): not superb in any one area, but no weaknesses. Should consistently hit .285-.325 with 25-35 HR's.
Honorable mention: Dave Diaz (ARI), Luke Gleason (CHI), Mikey York (BAL)
1. Albert Santayana, 3B/2B (SEA): best power prospect in the league adds very good contact skills plus an excellent batting eye. Capable of .340, 60+ HR's and multiple MVP's.
2. Melvin Charleston, 2B (SD): great contact, 30-HR power, superb eye and blazing speed will translate into excellent all-round numbers. Only question mark is how well he'll fare against RHP.
3. Tsuyoshi Tabaka, 1B (PHI): gotta love the lefty power hitter who makes good contact and kills lefties. Won't lead the league in walks, but will get his share.
4. Len Sullivan, CF (PIT): another burner...may end up with the best walk totals among the league's prospects. Will handle lefties adequately and toss in 20-25 HR's.
5. Hector Bennett, IF (PHI): not superb in any one area, but no weaknesses. Should consistently hit .285-.325 with 25-35 HR's.
Honorable mention: Dave Diaz (ARI), Luke Gleason (CHI), Mikey York (BAL)
Season 17, Poll 1:Owners Say Nakano is Majors Leagues' Best Hitter Ever
Major Leagues' owners overwhelmingly voted Jae Nakano the best hitter in the world's history in Season 17's first poll.
Nakano got 9 votes to Luis Escobar's 4, with Tim Rogers, Tomas Pascual and Dickie Scharein getting 1 vote each.
Next up we'll tackle the top position player prospects.
Nakano got 9 votes to Luis Escobar's 4, with Tim Rogers, Tomas Pascual and Dickie Scharein getting 1 vote each.
Next up we'll tackle the top position player prospects.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Free Agency Part 2
The Nationals made the big headlines but there were plenty of other interesting deals made during the second half of Free Agency. Here's a summary of the rest of the Type A and B signings:
Doug Bay, RP: Chicago (AL) - 1 year, $4.6MM. Excellent "old-guy 1-year contract. Bay has seen only a negligible ratings drop (couple of points in DUR) and is looking like he'll be effective until he's 40. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: The screwball specialist will be at it again for one more season. Great control plus nasty nasty screwball equals many outs. Wouldn't be surprised to see him step in and close a few games but for right now he will be a key pitcher out of the pen to bridge the gap between the starters and the closer. Ajb's Grade: A
Neifi Martin, 3B: Philadelphia - 3 years, $11.4MM. Neifi's still good, but the ratings are collapsing. Fortunately the Phillies retained a mutual option for the 3rd year. He'll still hit this year, but the end is in sight. Blanch's Grade: B
Ajb's Second Opinion: He's not the player he once was as his ratings are starting to decline. Even so he still should put up solid numbers for the majority of his contract. His bat may still hold up but his defense is falling fast. May see time in the OF. For 3 million a year he is not being overpaid at all. Ajb's Grade: B+
Aaron Taylor, 2B: Pittsburgh - 3 years, $20.8MM. Great defense, a little pop, and he plays 162 games a year. Maybe a little steep on the price tag, but a solid player. Blanch's Grade: A-
Ajb's Second Opinion: Terrific signing, great health and his ratings have not yet started slipping. His offensive production should totally justify the annual salary that he will be making. Ajb's Grade: A
Jesus Olivares, RP: Washington D.C. - 5 years, $110MM. The one everyone's talking about. On one hand, can you give a max contract to a relief pitcher? On the other hand, Olivares can give you SP innings with a little work. You have to take the Olivares, Javier and Lindblom contracts (total: $274MM) as a package deal: World Series or two, they all get an A. No WS, they get an F. For now, Olivares is a very good pitcher who got overpaid. Blanch's Grade: C
Ajb's Second Opinion: Hmm, where have I seen this before. Washington making a huge free agent signing, again. Well there is no doubt who has one of the better bullpens in this world. Like I said before, this is a A+ signing if they win a World Series or two, if they don't, well then that's a lot of money being spent. Ajb's Grade: B
Miguel Javier, 2B: Washington D.C. - 5 years, $90MM. Everything's pretty much all been said about D.C.'s contracts at this point.
Ajb's Second Opinion: See every other Washington signing....
Alex Renteria, C: Tampa Bay - 3 years, $15.3MM. Looks like a great price for an All-Star to me. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: Last year was a great year for him and while he has never had trouble hitting 15-20 home runs a year, his batting average has never been great (until last year). 5 million a year for the next 3 years is not over paying for his services. Ajb's Grade: B+
Len Brower, RP: Tampa Bay - 1 year, $3.9MM. Another good 1 year, old-reliever deal. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: He should be a solid addition to the Rays bullpen, and if he's not? Well he's only signed for one year. Good signing. Ajb's Grade: A
Nigel Simon, 3B: Tampa Bay - 3 years, $15MM. Not a bad price for a guy who could put up numbers close to Vin Sanchez'. Blanch's Grade: B+
Ajb's Second Opinion: A poor man's Vin Sanchez is a good way of describing him. And for 5 million a year he is a lot cheaper then Sanchez. Ajb's Grade: B+
Sarma Nagy, RP: Chicago (AL) - 1 year, $3.7MM. Sox hit the nursing home for another (good) reliever. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: He is coming off of major shoulder surgery. Doesn't have the health he once did, but for 1 year he should be able to be a good asset the the White Sox's bullpen. Just don't pitch him to much. Ajb's Grade: B+
Vin Sanchez, 3B: Milwaukee - 5 years, $101MM. Sanchez is a really good player, no doubt. $101 million worth? No. Blanch's Grade: C
Ajb's Second Opinion: Best player in this free agent class? Yes. Will he make Milwaukee a better team? Yes. Can he carry the team by himself? Probably not. Not a terrible signing, it fills a need but Milwaukee has other things to worry about, like who is going to play CF. Ajb's Grade: B
Tony Cornejo, SS: Seattle - 2 years, $5.4MM. Slick fielder is worth every penny, although he probably continues as a backup. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: Great defensively, average with the bat. He could see some time as the starter at short, but his real value will probably be coming off the bench as the number 1 defensive replacement. Ajb's Grade: A
Joe Davis, RP: Seattle - 2 years, $9.6MM. 5.38 ERA last year. 2.79 ERA the year before while walking 27 in 38 innings. OK. Ryne Duren**, Ricky Vaughn, Nuke Laloosh...Joe Davis? Blanch's Grade: B
Ajb's Second Opinion: He throws very very hard. National League hitters are breathing a sigh of relief now that they do not have to face him.... and fear of getting blasted by him. Needless to say he doesn't have great control. Getting out of Colorado and going to a big time pitchers park should help his numbers. Ajb's Grade: B
** from the Ryne Duren Wikipedia entry:
Doug Bay, RP: Chicago (AL) - 1 year, $4.6MM. Excellent "old-guy 1-year contract. Bay has seen only a negligible ratings drop (couple of points in DUR) and is looking like he'll be effective until he's 40. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: The screwball specialist will be at it again for one more season. Great control plus nasty nasty screwball equals many outs. Wouldn't be surprised to see him step in and close a few games but for right now he will be a key pitcher out of the pen to bridge the gap between the starters and the closer. Ajb's Grade: A
Neifi Martin, 3B: Philadelphia - 3 years, $11.4MM. Neifi's still good, but the ratings are collapsing. Fortunately the Phillies retained a mutual option for the 3rd year. He'll still hit this year, but the end is in sight. Blanch's Grade: B
Ajb's Second Opinion: He's not the player he once was as his ratings are starting to decline. Even so he still should put up solid numbers for the majority of his contract. His bat may still hold up but his defense is falling fast. May see time in the OF. For 3 million a year he is not being overpaid at all. Ajb's Grade: B+
Aaron Taylor, 2B: Pittsburgh - 3 years, $20.8MM. Great defense, a little pop, and he plays 162 games a year. Maybe a little steep on the price tag, but a solid player. Blanch's Grade: A-
Ajb's Second Opinion: Terrific signing, great health and his ratings have not yet started slipping. His offensive production should totally justify the annual salary that he will be making. Ajb's Grade: A
Jesus Olivares, RP: Washington D.C. - 5 years, $110MM. The one everyone's talking about. On one hand, can you give a max contract to a relief pitcher? On the other hand, Olivares can give you SP innings with a little work. You have to take the Olivares, Javier and Lindblom contracts (total: $274MM) as a package deal: World Series or two, they all get an A. No WS, they get an F. For now, Olivares is a very good pitcher who got overpaid. Blanch's Grade: C
Ajb's Second Opinion: Hmm, where have I seen this before. Washington making a huge free agent signing, again. Well there is no doubt who has one of the better bullpens in this world. Like I said before, this is a A+ signing if they win a World Series or two, if they don't, well then that's a lot of money being spent. Ajb's Grade: B
Miguel Javier, 2B: Washington D.C. - 5 years, $90MM. Everything's pretty much all been said about D.C.'s contracts at this point.
Ajb's Second Opinion: See every other Washington signing....
Alex Renteria, C: Tampa Bay - 3 years, $15.3MM. Looks like a great price for an All-Star to me. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: Last year was a great year for him and while he has never had trouble hitting 15-20 home runs a year, his batting average has never been great (until last year). 5 million a year for the next 3 years is not over paying for his services. Ajb's Grade: B+
Len Brower, RP: Tampa Bay - 1 year, $3.9MM. Another good 1 year, old-reliever deal. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: He should be a solid addition to the Rays bullpen, and if he's not? Well he's only signed for one year. Good signing. Ajb's Grade: A
Nigel Simon, 3B: Tampa Bay - 3 years, $15MM. Not a bad price for a guy who could put up numbers close to Vin Sanchez'. Blanch's Grade: B+
Ajb's Second Opinion: A poor man's Vin Sanchez is a good way of describing him. And for 5 million a year he is a lot cheaper then Sanchez. Ajb's Grade: B+
Sarma Nagy, RP: Chicago (AL) - 1 year, $3.7MM. Sox hit the nursing home for another (good) reliever. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: He is coming off of major shoulder surgery. Doesn't have the health he once did, but for 1 year he should be able to be a good asset the the White Sox's bullpen. Just don't pitch him to much. Ajb's Grade: B+
Vin Sanchez, 3B: Milwaukee - 5 years, $101MM. Sanchez is a really good player, no doubt. $101 million worth? No. Blanch's Grade: C
Ajb's Second Opinion: Best player in this free agent class? Yes. Will he make Milwaukee a better team? Yes. Can he carry the team by himself? Probably not. Not a terrible signing, it fills a need but Milwaukee has other things to worry about, like who is going to play CF. Ajb's Grade: B
Tony Cornejo, SS: Seattle - 2 years, $5.4MM. Slick fielder is worth every penny, although he probably continues as a backup. Blanch's Grade: A
Ajb's Second Opinion: Great defensively, average with the bat. He could see some time as the starter at short, but his real value will probably be coming off the bench as the number 1 defensive replacement. Ajb's Grade: A
Joe Davis, RP: Seattle - 2 years, $9.6MM. 5.38 ERA last year. 2.79 ERA the year before while walking 27 in 38 innings. OK. Ryne Duren**, Ricky Vaughn, Nuke Laloosh...Joe Davis? Blanch's Grade: B
Ajb's Second Opinion: He throws very very hard. National League hitters are breathing a sigh of relief now that they do not have to face him.... and fear of getting blasted by him. Needless to say he doesn't have great control. Getting out of Colorado and going to a big time pitchers park should help his numbers. Ajb's Grade: B
** from the Ryne Duren Wikipedia entry:
Rinold George "Ryne" Duren (February 22, 1929 - January 6, 2011) was an American relief pitcher in Major League Baseball.[1]
He was known for the combination of his blazing fastball and his very poor vision. With his thick coke bottle glasses, few batters dared to dig in against Duren. Casey Stengel said, "I would not admire hitting against Ryne Duren, because if he ever hit you in the head you might be in the past tense."
Cristobal Vizcaino, RP: Minnesota - 2 years, $6MM. Had a couple of good seasons in Minnesota, so maybe the homecoming does him good. Can't fault the Twins for the price. Blanch's Grade: B
Jerry York, SP: Minnesota - 2 years, $13MM. Is a 200-game winner in HBD like a 300-game winner in rl? Jerry's still got it. Blanch's Grade: B
Ajb's Second Opinion: Does the old man still have 2 years left in the tank? Probably. Great health and surprisingly has not had a major drop off in ratings yet. Should continue his ascent towards the top 5 record in wins, as he only needs 4 to be in 5th place. Ajb's Grade: B+Carl Ashley, RP: Arizona - 1 year, $1.9MM. The Diamondbacks wrap up FA with another nursing home reliever. Not the best of the old RP's, but the best price. Blanch's Grade: B+
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