Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 72-90 (3rd) missed playoffs
Offense: 736 runs (7th)
Pitching: 4.22 ERA (11th)
Major Changes
FA Departures: SP Peter Zhou, OF Gerardo Martis, RP Jorge Marichal, C Ronn Mahomes, LR Jean Lanning, RP Naoki Higashioka
FA Signees: SP Andre Monahan, C Harold Blume, OF Kevin Cooper
Rule V: SP Mark Kwon (#7)
Season 21 Outlook
I correctly thought the division would be wide-open last year, but incorrectly picked the Reds to step up and take advantage. One would think if a team "underperformed" given the seasons Miguel Rojas (1.79 ERA in 225 IP) and Harold Creek (36/37 saves, 1.63 ERA) had, you'd look to the offense to find the problem.
The opposite is true. While the lineup performed at least adequately, the rest of the staff outside of Rojas, Creek and RP Desi Ortiz (3.43 ERA in 110 innings) had problems. Cincy can expect a much better year from Tony Ordaz, who would be the undisputed #1 on most teams. Pepe Villafuerte, as we saw in Season 19, is capable of putting up very good numbers. He's a fireballer and very tough on righties, but his wildness makes him unpredictable. I think Andre Monahan will end up being one of the high-impact FA signings of Season 21. He's compiled a very nice 3.47 ERA over his 6 seasons, and thus far his performance hasn't varied much from year to year. So, there's a good probabilty that the Reds will get 3 excellent SP performances this year, with at least a chance for a 4th.
Even if Creek slips some from last year (likely), he'll still be good as a closer. Ortiz is his primary setup...the bullpen gets a bit thin from there.
The Reds' offense probably goes much as Vin Sanchez goes. Last year was a bit of an off year for him, although he still hit 34 homers and drove in 102. Kevin Cooper replaces Martis in LF - basically a trade of on-base skills to get a bit more power. CF Sammy Quevedo provides some speed (20 SB's) and power (20 HR's), but needs to up that OBP (.294). Miguel Julio remains a better-than-average hitter for a C.
Cincinnati's still-average offense should still be good enough if the expected pitching improvements materialize. I don't think they'll beat the Cubs, but I think they'll make it a lot closer race this year.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Boston Red Sox Season 21 Outlook
Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 80-82 (2nd), missed playoffs
Offense: 799 runs (6th)
Pitching: 4.68 (13th)
Major Changes
FA Departures: OF Oswaldo Martin, SS Albert Moreno
FA Signees: none
Acquired via Trade: SP Ivan Chace
Promoted: 1B Jared Campana (Sea 18 #21 overall), 3B Thomas Conner (Sea 17 #39 overall), DH Diego James (Sea 18 #89 overall), RP Fritz Miles (Sea 16 #53 overall)
Season 21 Outlook(courtesy of GM jclarkbaker)
"My team hit like crazy last year. I expect the same, but more power/runs with James and Campana up. I would like Henderson not to get hurt this season, and my pitching underperformed last year, so if they are at least where they should be, the Sox should be in the playoffs.
World Major League Blog comment: Boston has a free-swinging (15th in BB's) lineup, but when they swing they hit it - the Sox had nearly 100 more hits than any other AL team, and led the entire Major Leagues with a .286 average. They're not a big power team - just 150 homers last year. James and a full year of Henderson should help with that. They have an excellent running game led by 2B Carter Briggs (63 for 68 in SB's) and CF Aurelio Benavente (47 for 59). Rookie 1B Campana has an excellent batting eye - he'll help the team OBP hitting somewhere near the top of the order.
Boston's pitching staff needs a big-time rebound. Of their 5 primary starters last year, only Sam Griffin (16-9, 3.80) had an ERA under 4.60. Charley Washington and Dewey Marion were both way above their career ERA's, so there's reason to believe a turnaround is imminent. Ivan Chace has had career stretches when he was effective, but it's been a few seasons...he's a wild card.
The bullpen is more reliable. Closer Dan Graham has been lights-out, converting 133 of 148 save opportunities in his 7 seasons. Fritz Miles, Albie Padilla and Bryan Gray provide quality setup innings.
I like Boston's chances. The pitching really could be improved, and Campana and James bring 2 more quality bats to an already-good offense.
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 80-82 (2nd), missed playoffs
Offense: 799 runs (6th)
Pitching: 4.68 (13th)
Major Changes
FA Departures: OF Oswaldo Martin, SS Albert Moreno
FA Signees: none
Acquired via Trade: SP Ivan Chace
Promoted: 1B Jared Campana (Sea 18 #21 overall), 3B Thomas Conner (Sea 17 #39 overall), DH Diego James (Sea 18 #89 overall), RP Fritz Miles (Sea 16 #53 overall)
Season 21 Outlook(courtesy of GM jclarkbaker)
"My team hit like crazy last year. I expect the same, but more power/runs with James and Campana up. I would like Henderson not to get hurt this season, and my pitching underperformed last year, so if they are at least where they should be, the Sox should be in the playoffs.
World Major League Blog comment: Boston has a free-swinging (15th in BB's) lineup, but when they swing they hit it - the Sox had nearly 100 more hits than any other AL team, and led the entire Major Leagues with a .286 average. They're not a big power team - just 150 homers last year. James and a full year of Henderson should help with that. They have an excellent running game led by 2B Carter Briggs (63 for 68 in SB's) and CF Aurelio Benavente (47 for 59). Rookie 1B Campana has an excellent batting eye - he'll help the team OBP hitting somewhere near the top of the order.
Boston's pitching staff needs a big-time rebound. Of their 5 primary starters last year, only Sam Griffin (16-9, 3.80) had an ERA under 4.60. Charley Washington and Dewey Marion were both way above their career ERA's, so there's reason to believe a turnaround is imminent. Ivan Chace has had career stretches when he was effective, but it's been a few seasons...he's a wild card.
The bullpen is more reliable. Closer Dan Graham has been lights-out, converting 133 of 148 save opportunities in his 7 seasons. Fritz Miles, Albie Padilla and Bryan Gray provide quality setup innings.
I like Boston's chances. The pitching really could be improved, and Campana and James bring 2 more quality bats to an already-good offense.
Florida Marlins Season 21 Outlook
Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 70-92 (3rd), missed playoffs
Offense: 621 runs (15th)
Pitching: 3.89 ERA (8th)
Major Changes
FA Departures: C Donne Mercedes
Left via Trade: OF Dave Diaz
Rule V: RP P.T. SaenzPromoted: 1B Rey Tamura (Sea 18 IFA), 2B Howie McLaughlin (Sea 18 #1 overall), SS Ricardo Ayala (Sea 17 IFA), SS Wilbur Kirby (Sea 17 #12 overall), SP Desmond Wengert (Sea 18 #14 overall)
Lurking in AAA: OF Louie Chiasson (Sea 18 #23 overall)
Season 21 OutlookThe Marlins continue to accumulate young talent. A good bit of it has found its way to the majors, especially on the pitching staff, and there's a healthy minor league pipeline in place.
The rotation has 2 young stud aces, Taylor Cashman (6th pick of the Sea 15 draft) and Vic Villalona (Sea 17's #1). Both a big, hard-throwing righties with good pitches and particular toughness on righty batters. Both are potential 20-game winners - they'll be anchoring this staff for a long time.
Behind those 2 are Grover Thames, a workhorse with a solid 4.01 ERA in 4 seasons; Desmond Wengert, who was the prime compensation in the Mark Payton trade last year; and Andy Brantley - 3.86 ERA in 163 IP as a rookie.
That's a damn nice rotation top to bottom. The bullpen might not be up to those standards, but it's pretty good. Jarred Cunningham posted a 2.99 ERA in 72 innings, and Julio Aviles notched a 1.59 in his 22 late-season innings.
The lineup has not caught up to the staff's talent yet, and at this point is incomplete. C Jim Fasano is the top power source; rookies McLaughlin and Kirby look like they'll be at least decent hitters for infielders. Florida has no OF's currently on the ML roster; I'm guessing Louie Chiasson in AAA will get the call shortly. He'll strike out a lot, but has good power and should be a pretty good all-round hitter.
With their pitching, the Marlins might actually contend if they go out and get a couple of hitters. Short of that, they'll still improve and maybe put a scare into the Cards and Braves if they slide any.
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 70-92 (3rd), missed playoffs
Offense: 621 runs (15th)
Pitching: 3.89 ERA (8th)
Major Changes
FA Departures: C Donne Mercedes
Left via Trade: OF Dave Diaz
Rule V: RP P.T. SaenzPromoted: 1B Rey Tamura (Sea 18 IFA), 2B Howie McLaughlin (Sea 18 #1 overall), SS Ricardo Ayala (Sea 17 IFA), SS Wilbur Kirby (Sea 17 #12 overall), SP Desmond Wengert (Sea 18 #14 overall)
Lurking in AAA: OF Louie Chiasson (Sea 18 #23 overall)
Season 21 OutlookThe Marlins continue to accumulate young talent. A good bit of it has found its way to the majors, especially on the pitching staff, and there's a healthy minor league pipeline in place.
The rotation has 2 young stud aces, Taylor Cashman (6th pick of the Sea 15 draft) and Vic Villalona (Sea 17's #1). Both a big, hard-throwing righties with good pitches and particular toughness on righty batters. Both are potential 20-game winners - they'll be anchoring this staff for a long time.
Behind those 2 are Grover Thames, a workhorse with a solid 4.01 ERA in 4 seasons; Desmond Wengert, who was the prime compensation in the Mark Payton trade last year; and Andy Brantley - 3.86 ERA in 163 IP as a rookie.
That's a damn nice rotation top to bottom. The bullpen might not be up to those standards, but it's pretty good. Jarred Cunningham posted a 2.99 ERA in 72 innings, and Julio Aviles notched a 1.59 in his 22 late-season innings.
The lineup has not caught up to the staff's talent yet, and at this point is incomplete. C Jim Fasano is the top power source; rookies McLaughlin and Kirby look like they'll be at least decent hitters for infielders. Florida has no OF's currently on the ML roster; I'm guessing Louie Chiasson in AAA will get the call shortly. He'll strike out a lot, but has good power and should be a pretty good all-round hitter.
With their pitching, the Marlins might actually contend if they go out and get a couple of hitters. Short of that, they'll still improve and maybe put a scare into the Cards and Braves if they slide any.
First 2 Polls
Seems like we had a lot of big-name talent movement this off-season, so I thought it would be interesting to see what we all thought of the moves. 2 polls:
Which big-name player move will have the most impact this season? By "most impact" I mean things like being key to a division title, improving 20 games...positive addition to win totals.
Which big-name free agent is the best bang for the buck? I don't know if "bargain" can be applied to any; "best value" might be another description.
Here are the players under consideration. All (3 traded players + 7 FA's) are in the first poll; just the 7 FA's in the second one.
SP Matthew Casey (trade to Nationals)
DH Cutter Nieman (trade to Twins)
OF Dave Diaz (trade to Sounds)
3B Max Gutierrez (FA to Nationals - 5yr, $110MM)
SP Calvin Nielsen (FA to Mariners - 5yr, $68.8MM)
C Pedro Caballero (FA to Blue Jays - 4yr, $65MM)
SP AlfredoTorrealba (FA to Pirates - 5yr, $52.5MM)
OF Sterling Adams (FA to Mets - 5yr, $75MM)
OF Bruce Page (FA to Blue Jays - 5yr, $56MM)
OF Rafael Rijo (FA to Pirates - 5yr, $60.8MM)
Which big-name player move will have the most impact this season? By "most impact" I mean things like being key to a division title, improving 20 games...positive addition to win totals.
Which big-name free agent is the best bang for the buck? I don't know if "bargain" can be applied to any; "best value" might be another description.
Here are the players under consideration. All (3 traded players + 7 FA's) are in the first poll; just the 7 FA's in the second one.
SP Matthew Casey (trade to Nationals)
DH Cutter Nieman (trade to Twins)
OF Dave Diaz (trade to Sounds)
3B Max Gutierrez (FA to Nationals - 5yr, $110MM)
SP Calvin Nielsen (FA to Mariners - 5yr, $68.8MM)
C Pedro Caballero (FA to Blue Jays - 4yr, $65MM)
SP AlfredoTorrealba (FA to Pirates - 5yr, $52.5MM)
OF Sterling Adams (FA to Mets - 5yr, $75MM)
OF Bruce Page (FA to Blue Jays - 5yr, $56MM)
OF Rafael Rijo (FA to Pirates - 5yr, $60.8MM)
Texas Rangers Season 21 Outlook
Season 20
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 77-85 (4th), missed playoffs
Offense: 706 runs (14th)
Pitching: 4.66 ERA (12th)
Major ChangesFA Departures: IF Wilfredo Vazquez, SP Alfredo Torrealba, RP Vic Olmeda
FA Signees: RP Chris Coppinger, C Don Towers, CF Andy Wagner
Lurking in AAA: 3B Reagan Cuddyer (Sea 18 #34 overall), OF Lucas Ford (Sea 18 #9 overall), OF Pascual Astacio (Sea 18 IFA)
Season 21 Outlook
The Texas offense is a bit of an oddity - it's a non-slugging (last in HR's), speedburner (2nd in SB's) lineup in a hitter's ballpark. 2B Howie Simmons (48-3) and 1B Rafael Sosa (36-6) are the 2 most prolific thieves, although Simmons starts the season on the 15-day DL. He could be Wally-Pipped when he returns - with Wagner taking over CF, Del Chang is now set at 2B, leaving no clear spot for Simmons. 3B currently has no clear successor to Vazquez - prospect Cuddyer may be there in 20 games. Chang (26 HR's & 96 RBI, but he'll need to improve that .294 OBP), Sosa (.252/18/72) and DH Bryce White (.269/17/74) are the prime run-producers.
The staff may experience some post-Torrrealba adjustments. Benito Acosta is undoubtedly an ace-level talent, but seems to be limited to about 150 innings. He'll be the most-of-the-time #1 starter. Les Price had his best ML season last year, and the Rangers desperately need something similar from him. The other SP candidates - Marrero, Stark, Beam and Rowand - very honestly, are barely ML-quality.
The short-relief crew - Adam Friend, Hector Franco and Coppinger - is pretty solid. I don't know how many leads they're going to inherit, but they should do OK with the ones they get.
Looks like kind of a tough season coming for the Rangers (and I've certainly been wrong about predictions a lot). That starting staff is more than likely going to put them in a lot of early game 5-0 holes - not exactly ideal for an offense centered around stealing bases. It might be time for Texas to try to remake this thing into more of a get-on-base, hit-for-power squad. With that in mind, I bet we'll see both AAA OF prospects (Ford and Astacio) early on.
Won/Loss (place in division) & Playoffs: 77-85 (4th), missed playoffs
Offense: 706 runs (14th)
Pitching: 4.66 ERA (12th)
Major ChangesFA Departures: IF Wilfredo Vazquez, SP Alfredo Torrealba, RP Vic Olmeda
FA Signees: RP Chris Coppinger, C Don Towers, CF Andy Wagner
Lurking in AAA: 3B Reagan Cuddyer (Sea 18 #34 overall), OF Lucas Ford (Sea 18 #9 overall), OF Pascual Astacio (Sea 18 IFA)
Season 21 Outlook
The Texas offense is a bit of an oddity - it's a non-slugging (last in HR's), speedburner (2nd in SB's) lineup in a hitter's ballpark. 2B Howie Simmons (48-3) and 1B Rafael Sosa (36-6) are the 2 most prolific thieves, although Simmons starts the season on the 15-day DL. He could be Wally-Pipped when he returns - with Wagner taking over CF, Del Chang is now set at 2B, leaving no clear spot for Simmons. 3B currently has no clear successor to Vazquez - prospect Cuddyer may be there in 20 games. Chang (26 HR's & 96 RBI, but he'll need to improve that .294 OBP), Sosa (.252/18/72) and DH Bryce White (.269/17/74) are the prime run-producers.
The staff may experience some post-Torrrealba adjustments. Benito Acosta is undoubtedly an ace-level talent, but seems to be limited to about 150 innings. He'll be the most-of-the-time #1 starter. Les Price had his best ML season last year, and the Rangers desperately need something similar from him. The other SP candidates - Marrero, Stark, Beam and Rowand - very honestly, are barely ML-quality.
The short-relief crew - Adam Friend, Hector Franco and Coppinger - is pretty solid. I don't know how many leads they're going to inherit, but they should do OK with the ones they get.
Looks like kind of a tough season coming for the Rangers (and I've certainly been wrong about predictions a lot). That starting staff is more than likely going to put them in a lot of early game 5-0 holes - not exactly ideal for an offense centered around stealing bases. It might be time for Texas to try to remake this thing into more of a get-on-base, hit-for-power squad. With that in mind, I bet we'll see both AAA OF prospects (Ford and Astacio) early on.
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