Game 28 - AL North, AL East Story Lines

In the AL North, the White Sox are keeping a blistering pace...their .786 start would translate to 127 wins over the 162-game schedule. Possible?  For the most part, they're doing it with pitching - 2.73 team ERA.  Pretty much the whole staff is throwing well, but they're really getting great outings from their 2 big middle relievers, Esmil Gonzalez (3 wins, 4 saves, 1.17 ERA) and Kevin Chong (1 win, 6 saves, 1.73 ERA).  Despite a .701 OPS (10th), the offense has scored the 3rd-most runs in the AL.  Magglio Rodriguez is doing his thing (.444 OBP) and SS Jack Ratliff's .836-OPS start has been a pleasant surprise.  But the rest of the lineup has been quiet...what happens if they start hitting?

Minnesota (C Joel Dorsey - .342/7/16) with their crazy all-relief pitching scheme (Brian Murata - 5 wins, 1.57 ERA, J.J. Bibby - 4 wins, 0.81 Whip) and Detroit (Lucas Ford - .346/6/20, Cano - 3-2, 2.40 ERA) are playing well and trying to hang in, but both may be adjusting their goals to "Wild Card" soon.  After a horrendous start, Toronto has won 4 of 8 and could be righting the ship.

Boston's pitching wasn't great last year, but it was nearly good enough.  Not so with this year's 5.04 ERA.  Taylor Cashman's doing his part (2.63 ERA), but the rest of the rotation is mostly north of 6.00.  Good thing the lineup's clicking - they lead the league in runs and homers.  Pleasant Surprise Department: CF D.J. Nicholson has been a pretty good-hitting CF over his career (.771 OPS); he's currently 2nd in the AL with 12 homers and his 1.162 OPS leads the league.

The Red Sox' pitching problems have left the door open for the rest of the AL East; they haven't exactly walked through it but none are getting it slammed in their faces either.  The Indians are getting just enough hitting (Rod McNeil - .265/5/14) - combined with some surprise pitching performances (Rodney Stuart - 3 wins, 18 scoreless innings).  Despite currently riding an L9, the Orioles are only 3 back.  FA C Lonny Soto has provided the spark with a .343/4/17 start.  And after years of rebuilding, the Yankees are getting competitive.  Vin Gumbs, last year's #1 overall who jumped virtually straight to the Bigs, has taken a few lumps but is holding his own with a 2-2 record and a 3.57 ERA.  ROY, anyone?

Season 18 draft retrospective

Top 5 picks:
Howie McLaughlin CF/2B/COF Florida Marlins:  Awards: 1X AS appearance.  Summary:  Defensively, McLaughlin was either a below average CF, passable 2B, or above average corner OF.  Offensively, he had a career slash line of .261/.325/.433 in 1706 games and was good for 10-20 HR and 30 doubles a season.  Overall, while he hasn't been the splashiest of #1 overall picks, he has had a productive career and still has a couple seasons left in him.

Larry Sewell  OF/1B Colorado Rockies:  Awards: 1X MVP, 1x ROY, 2x AS, 4X Silver Slugger (2 LF, 2 1B).  Summary:  First things first, Sewell was traded twice before making his ML debut and thus far has spent his entire career in Minnesota, so Colorado has not inflated his stats.  In 1552 career games, Sewell has a slash line of .325/.388/.475 to go along with 1981 hits, 164 HR, and 481 SB.  He has topped 200 hits four times in his career and fell one hit shy of making it five times in season 22 and outside of a 69 game debut season, he has never hit below .300.

Lee McCarthy P Toronto Blue Jays: Awards: none.  Summary:  For his career, McCarthy has gone 71-77 with 39 saves in 1382 innings while posting a 3.48 ERA.  It looks like a handful of injuries forced him to the pen in his later years, where he actually put up some of his best numbers.  Generally I want more innings per season out of a top five pick, but I think McCarthy has lived up to his draft slot, at least in the context of this draft.

Robin Buford P Houston Astros:  Awards: none.  Summary:  Buford compiled a 102-113 record with a 3.92 ERA in 1,924.2 innings.  At first glance, this doesn't seem great, but he spent most of his career in homer friendly Minute Maid and Wrigley.  He never pitched like an ace, but he was consistently above league average despite his unfriendly confines.

Benji Hume P Milwaukee Brewers: Did not sign.  It appears his demands were not met as no compensation pick was awarded.  This is more an unmitigated disaster than a typical flop.

First round winners:
Mariano Lima 2B/OF #6 overall pick Arizona Diamondbacks:  Awards: 2X All-star, 1X Silver Slugger (3B).  Summary: Zero points awarded here for winning an award at 3B as his defense wiped out most of his offensive value.  Like McLaughlin, Lima could either be a passable 2B (3-4 minus plays per 162), or a solid corner OF.  His offense has been a bit better with a slash line of .256/.316/.463 and 348 HR in 1884 games.

Lucas Ford 1B #9 overall pick Texas Rangers:  Awards: 3X All-Star, 2X Silver Slugger (DH, LF), 1X Gold Glove (1B). Summary:   In 1,557 games, Ford has put up a slash line of .285/.350/.494. to go along with 1,763 hits and 331 HR.  If he doesn't decline too sharply, Ford should be able to finish his career with 2K hits and 400 HR.  Sure, its easy to call a slugging 1B a win, but even in his worst seasons he has been a lock to hit at least 20 HR and post a better than league average OPS.  Now on the wrong side of 30, Ford has been still been able to anchor a line-up in the not so friendly confines of Comerica and should have a few more seasons left at this level.

Sherry Grey P #22 overall Oakland Athletics:   Grey is in his 11th season in the bigs splitting time between the rotation and the pen.  His inclusion in the win section is based largely on two stellar seasons as a starter: with Florida in season 32 he went 18-9 with a 2.54 ERA in 209 innings and last season with Boston he put together a 16-7 record in 204.2 innings. Currently in the final season of his contract, if he can finish the year strong and follow up with a few more solid seasons as a starter he could make a case for himself as the best pitcher out of this draft.  It should also be noted that though he was drafted by Oakland, Grey was traded before making his ML debut and his overall numbers are not a product of a pitcher friendly environment.  Overall, he has a 95-58 record with a 3.78 ERA over 1,356 big league innings.

Milton Coffey SS #27 overall Seattle Mariners:  Awards 2X All-Star.  Summary:  Despite being drafted by Seattle, Coffey has spent his entire big league career calling hitter friendly Fenway Park his home.  Thus far he has put up a slash line of .254/.313/.423 in 5,083 AB posting 202 HR.  Coffey has made his living by combining 20 HR a season power with solid defense at a key position.  Admittedly, he has been a bit error prone, but his 141 + plays have helped offset that.

Ron Ratliff P #28 overall Washington Nationals:  Awards: 1X Gold Glove 1X All-Star.  Summary:  Of all the pitchers from this draft, Ratliff has had the most dominant stretch.  Seasons 25-28 with San Francisco combined to produce a 47-30 record with a 2.67 ERA over 763 innings.

Sam Lynn P #31 overall Baltimore Orioles:  Awards:  4X All-Star.  1X Fireman of the Year.  Summary:  While I find closers to be overrated overall, 295 saves and a 3.42 career ERA are nothing to sneeze at.  Lynn is off to a stellar start this season as well, converting on his first eight save opportunities and allowing just one run in 11 innings.


Comp round winners:
Banana Larkin P #48 overall pick Los Angeles Dodgers:  Larkin has posted a 3.68 ERA with a .714 OPS against in 786,2 innings.  Impressively, despite spending most of his career in friendly Dodger stadium, his best seasons have actually come while pitching in the decidedly hostile environment of Wrigley field.

Rabbit Martin P #56 overall pick Houston Astros:  Awards: 2X All-Stars.  Summary:  Martin was one of those RP value picks that paid off.  Stamina has been the one piece lacking in his game; he has yet to reach 80 IP in a season.  That said, Martin has been fairly consistent in his career posting a 3.69 ERA and a .684 OPS against in 519.1 career innings.`

Nathan Huff 3B/OF #57 overall pick Arizona Diamondbacks:  Defensively, Huff was a good corner outfielder and a slightly below par 3B, but he was able to offset that with his bat.  Through ten seasons he has amassed 208 HR with an OPS of .784.  Unfortunately for Huff, however, his best season was his rookie season when he put up a .957 OPS in 133 games and looked to be well on his way to a career filled with accolades.

Round 2-25 winners:
Diego James DH 2nd round #89 overall Washington Nationals:  For a man without a defensive position, James has stuck around for a surprisingly long time; he is now entering his 13th season.  For a DH his career marks of 363 HR and a .768 OPS are, admittedly, underwhelming.  He did have a stretch of six seasons in Boston however where he hit 30+ HR a year and had a couple of genuinely good seasons in this period.  He followed his stint in Boston by signing on with Seattle where he spent three seasons as a DH hitting well below league averages.  Now with the Dodgers, James has purchased a fielder's glove and is hoping to resurrect his career.

J.R. Voigt P 11th round #372 overall pick Boston Red Sox:  Voigt is one of those mythical beings known as a Diamond in the Rough that actually turned in a solid big league career.  Making him especially rare is that he has succeeded despite awful control.  In 316 innings, Voigt has posted a walk rate of just under 6 BB/9 yet he has managed an ERA of 3.82 and an OPS against of .694.  Enjoy him while you can; Voigt is in the final year of a 2 year pact with the Dodgers and who knows when the next rendition of Wild Thing will grace our mounds.

First round flops:
Bosco McCoy P #8 overall pick Baltimore Orioles:  In parts of six seasons, McCoy accumulated 593 innings posting a 26-40 record with a .786 OPS against and a 4.68 ERA. He had a couple of solid seasons early in his career in Detroit, but  his overall body of work was below average and that just won't cut it with a top 10 pick.

Lonny Lewis LF #10 overall pick Minnesota Twins:  Career slash line: .000/.000/.000 in one AB.  Retired.

Dan Greenberg RP #16 overall pick Cleveland Indians:  Over 268.2  career innings, Greenberg has produced a 5.19 ERA and an OPS against of .818.  Greenberg was the epitome of back of the pen filler, which is not what you are looking for this early.

Teddy Flier #17 overall pick Cincinnati Reds:  Initial demands not met; unsigned with no comp pick awarded.

Fred Howard 3B  #18 overall pick Kansas City Royals:  Over parts of two seasons Howard accumulated 459 AB with a slash line of .257/.304/.373 while playing adequate defense at the hot corner.

Homer Holland P #24 overall pick Arizona Diamondbacks:  Over six seasons, Hollands BEST output was a 4.21 ERA with a .765 OPS against in 83.1 innings.

Cliff Woods P #25 overall Minnesota Twins: Never made the majors.

George Gutierrez P #26: Anaheim Angels:  Gutierrez was a touch better than Holland, but a 5.35 ERA over eight seasons  still ugly.  His season 28 performance was one for the ages, posting an ERA of 8.70 with an OPS against of 989 in 89 innings.  I can only imagine he was allowed to pitch completely gassed as there is no other excuse for opposing hitters to all look like MVP candidates.

Intriguing picks:
Kimera Oliver SP #11 overall pick Nashville Sounds.   Awards: 1X All-star.  Summary:  In 2,582.1 career innings, Oliver has amassed a 161-111 record with  a 3.64 ERA and .701 OPS against; all said and done, this is what you want to see from your top pick.   Park factors are definitely working in his favor here with stints in Oakland, San Diego, and Shea Stadium which begs the question, what do Oliver's stats look like if he played in say Wrigley Field and Olympic Stadium?

Lee Fossum SS 4th round #148 overall pick Boston Red Sox:  Fossum is notable for being the first player I have come across to have a career spanning at least ten seasons and not once topping .500 OPS.  His defensive was above average, but even if he played 162 games a year I don't think it would have been quite Gold Glove worthy which makes his long career all the more amazing.

Best Draft:  Arizona Diamondbacks:  Yes, they did have a big first round miss with Holland, but they are the only team that walked away with two above average regular contributors in Lima and Huff.  At the end of the day though, this was a weak class and the Diamondbacks are merely the best of a bad lot.

Honorable Mention:  Washington Nationals: This is largely due to getting Ratliff at the tail end of the first round.; when he was at his best he outpitched everyone else from this draft.


Discussion points:
1) Lack of accolades for top 4 picks:  The top 4 picks combined for 46 ML seasons at the time of this writing, yet have a combined three All-star appearances, one MVP, one ROY and four Silver Sluggers.  If you take Sewell out of the equation that leaves just one All-star game over 35 seasons for the remaining three.  All of these picks were above average ML players, but (Sewell aside), did they reach your expectations for a top five pick?

2)   Going back to the points made on Kimera Oliver, parks in this world as a group tend to favor pitchers over hitters. Cumulatively, they favor hitters slightly for singles and moderately for triples while favoring pitchers moderately for doubles and HR to both fields.  I would argue that doubles and HR are more important to an offense than singles and triples (due to relative low impact of a single and relative scarcity of triples).  How do we use this to assess  the true impact a player had.  Oliver was certainly helped by pitching in some stadiums that were pitcher friendly across the board, but how much did that lower his career ERA?

3)  Performance wise, this was a very underwhelming draft class.  Several players appear to have another 3-5 seasons of productivity; are there any players who can do enough in the twilight of their careers to boost them onto the winners lists?

Game 22: NL East Arms Race Goes Ballistic

We recently got these comments on the state of the Nats and the NL East from Nats GM chase39:

"Still early in the season yet, but CF Darrell Hughes (.327/7/18) has been a pleasant surprise. I got him hitting leadoff, not ideal but best i can do with the lineup I have. I don't expect him to hit this well the rest of the year, but it's a nice start. Felix Satou has been a disappointment so far (6.14 ERA), even going back to last season, but I expect he will pick things up and team up with Adalberto Cervantes (1.35 ERA) to lock the 7th and 8th innings down.  Now I just have to hope one of Trahan (4 saves, 3.60 ERA) or Carlos Valdes (1 save, 0.00 ERA) can close and we should be good. I'm surprised how well every team in our division has been playing, I expected the Mets and Pirates to be better, but the Phillies have shown a great improvement."

Shortly after those comments, chase39 launched a nuclear strike against the rest of the division by trading for Giants ace Maicer Camacho***.

That's just the latest move in the arms race that has driven an incredible amount of talent into the NL East in the last 2 seasons (and seen all 4 teams play well over .500 to star the season).

Since the beginning of Season 32, here's a review of the talent that has flooded onto NL East ML rosters:

Mets: called up Ricardo Pena, Cecil Bonilla, Vin Valenzuela, Daniel Stevenson, and Jose De Aza

Nationals:  traded for Camacho and Satou, called up Hughes.

Phillies: signed FA's Eddie Michaels, Otis Simmons, Yuuta Abe, Steve Davenport, Allen Lincoln, Fritz Miles, and Benito Acosta; traded for IF Jack Forrest; and called up Diory Esposito and Trevor Donatello.

Pirates: signed FA Eddie Hamels; called up Benito Torres, Ramiro Cella, Roberto Esposito, R.A. Hollins, Tony Baerga, Tom Brinson, Ernesto Johnson and Bernie Martin; traded for Mac Kennedy, Kendry Fernandez, and Albie Accardo.


*** By the way, the Giants also did pretty well in this trade, getting prospects Yamil Pinto and Douglas Lindor, plus ML pitcher Dillon Shave, for a player who will likely declare free agency after next season.

Where did these CHW come from?

The Chicago White Sox, under owner pfontaine, have been around a long time. One of the longest-tenured owners in World Major Leagues, pfontaine has been at the helm since S5.

Recently though, the White Sox have stepped up their collective game, excelling in the hyper-competitive AL North. They've won 93+ games each season since S28 and in the past 3 have kicked it up another notch, winning 107, 101, and 110 games in S30, S31, and S32 respectively. Amazingly, the middle of those 3 seasons (S31) wasn't even enough to win the division, but did snag a Wild Card berth. In S32, the White Sox came roaring back, winning the division handily and running through the playoffs with an 11-5 record on the way to their first WS title.

So how was the juggernaut born? I decided to take a look at the current ML roster to see what I could learn.



Some highlights -

Total IFA signed by CHW - 3.
1 each in S25, S26, and S27. Total of $79M in IFA Bonus.

Total true 1st Rd draft picks made by CHW - 4.
2 each in S25 and S27, all 4 top 8 picks.

Total other draft picks made by CHW - 5.
Mostly specialists/role players or depth. 1 Supplemental Rd 1, 3 rd 2, 1 rd 3.

Players traded to CHW - 5.

FA signings - 7.
No max deals, but some pretty big ticket items - total expenditure of $209.6M.

Rule 5 players - 1.
From way back in S24.

Overall, pfontaine did an excellent job of accumulating truly top talent (9 of the 25 players were top 8 draft picks, plus the 3 IFA stars) and supplementing them with complementary role players under affordable contracts. With the current makeup, there's little reason to see the CHW falling off a cliff in the next 2-3 seasons, so owners in the AL North - as well as everyone aiming at a WS title - have their work cut out for them.

Season 25 Top 10 Draft Picks Reviewed

I thought it would be fun to look back at a draft and see the top 10 players selected and where they are.  Who were the great picks, good picks, and bad picks.  Let's review each one and determine if it was a good choice for the team.

#1 Overall Pick - Stubby George - Pitcher - College - Colorado Springs Rockies

Average ML Season Stats:

Career 62-47 Record

OAV:  .229

WHIP  1.16

Career ERA = 3.06

Awards:

Season 28 Rookie of the Year

Season 31 All Star

Review:

George had the honor of being the first player taken in this draft.  The thin air of Colorado Springs hasn't stopped this lefty from being a very good groundball pitcher.  With great health and great durability, George looks like a mainstay to be in the All Star game hunt each year.  Surprised he hasn't won more games with his 3.06 career ERA.  Is George a future Hall of Famer?

#2 Overall Pick - Cy James - SS (now 2B,LF) - High School - Atlanta Braves

Average ML Season Stats:

AVG: .280

HR: 22

RBI: 79

SB: 23

OBP: .354

Awards:

Season 28 Sliver Slugger SS

Season 31 All Star

Season 32 All Star

Season 32 Silver Slugger 2B

Review:

A great hitter across the board, James has been durable and consistent in his years with the Braves.  He has never been on the DL despite having a 75 health rating and has shown the ability to be consistent his average, power, and speed.  His versatility on defense is a plus.

#3 Overall Pick - Sidney Larkin - 2B (now LF) - JuCo - Chicago White Sox

Average ML Stats:

AVG: .271

HR: 34

RBI: 111

SB: 14

OBP: .333

Awards:

Season 29 Most Valuable Player

Season 29 Silver Slugger LF

Season 31 Silver Slugger LF

Review:

Larkin has been a great player for the White Sox the last 4 seasons.  The only question mark with Larkin is his health issues.  His 64 health is a major concern and his infamous stint on the 60 DL in Season 32 with a herniated disk in his back really limited him on putting up even more amazing numbers.  When healthy, he is a MVP candidate.

#4 Overall Pick - Ubaldo Maduro - SS - College - Milwaukee Brewers

Average ML Stats:

AVG: .257

HR: 15

BB: 60

Awards:

Season 30 Silver Slugger SS

Season 30 All Star

Season 32 All Star

Review:

If Milwaukee wanted to draft a good defensive shortstop that could hit for a bit with some power then they have found their man.  Guys like this are hard to come by.  Maduro's greatest attribute is his bunting skills (96 rating), but has also shown a great eye.  Would be a great #2 hitter for many years to come.

#5 Overall Pick - Brad Knight - Pitcher - College - Toronto Blue Jays

Average ML Stats:

Has yet to be in the major leagues

Awards:

No MLB Awards

Review:

With a decent 3.68 ERA in the minors, Knight has yet to break through to the majors.  With porr stamina, his ineffectiveness against right handed hitters and his proneness to the long ball, it reflects poorly on the Blue Jays scouting department.  Knight has since been traded to the Cincinnati Reds as the Reds hope they can do to Knight what they did with Edinson Volquez.

  

#6 Overall Pick - Kareem McElroy - Pitcher - College - Detroit Tigers

Average ML Stats:

ERA = 3.69

WHIP = 1.27

Awards:

No MLB awards

Review:

Not often do you see a #6 pick in the draft released, but McElroy was given up on by the Tigers in Season 32 and released.  McElroy has since been picked up by the New York Yankees and has done a respectable job while making less than $2 million a season.  Pitching doesn't seem to be a strong suit of the Season 25 draft.

#7 Overall Pick - Earl Mesoraco - Pitcher - College - Philadelphia Phillies

Average ML Stats:

ERA: 3.41

WHIP: 1.18

Awards:

No MLB awards

Review:

Another pitcher that falls into the category of Season 25 not being a good draft for pitching.  Mesoraco has poor health and durability that includes a stint on the 60 day DL in Season 29.  An extreme flyball pitcher, Mesoraco has had only one winning season out of the 5 as a full time starter.

#8 Overall Pick - Stan Duran - LF (now 1B) - High School - Chicago White Sox

Average ML Stats:

AVG: .280

HR: 20

SB: 24

Has never struck out more than 99 times in a season.

Awards:

Season 29 Rookie of the Year

Season 29 Gold Glove

Season 29 All Star

Season 30 Gold Glove

Season 31 All Star

Season 32 World Series Ring

Review:

Chicago finds another piece to their Season 32 World Series Championship.  Duran was a great selection at #8 and has given this team a Gold Glove caliber 1B that hits for average, power, and can steal bases.  Very durable as well in playing 157-159 games every year in the regular season.  The White Sox have done very well in this draft.

#9 Overall Pick - Braeden Gil - CF - High School - Washington Nationals

Gil did not sign.

#10 Overall Pick - Yamil Mercado - Pitcher - College - Baltimore Orioles

Average MLB Stats:

ERA: 4.16

WHIP: 1.32

OAV: .259

Awards:

None

Review:

Your definition of an average pitcher.  Was very mediocre until a trade sent him to Minnesota where he worked out of the bullpen to have an amazing season in Season 32.  That year he went 15-1, 1 SV, and an ERA of 2.74.

Hope you enjoyed this!  Thanks to blanch for letting me contribute.

bperkins