Season 34 AL North Preview

Chicago White Sox
Season 33:  100-62, lost to Boston in 2nd Round
GM: pfontaine

The Offseason:   Free agency left some holes, but the core of the 2-time defending North champs returned intact.   The Sox played actively in free agency, most notably adding some power with RF Shawn Quinn and DH Manny Martin.

Outlook:  The Magglio Rodriguez - Stan Duran - Elvis Snow - Tony Flores - Addison Johnson - Hector Ayala - Kevin Chong core that rang up 110 wins and a World Series win 2 years ago is still in its prime and capable of winning 110 again.  They've got a little more power in the lineup than they did last year...if that core group returns to Season 32 form it's curtains for the AL.

Detroit Tigers
Season 33:  82-80
GM: vlpratt62

The Offseason:  The Tigers lost some good performers in FA (Hector Bennett, Cap Scott, Kris Greer) but they were all getting on in years and likely to decline.  Detroit management responded with its most aggressive FA attack in years, re-signing ace Manuel Cano to an incredibly team-friendly 5-year, $8.5MM/year contract, spending big on #2 starter Pedro Nunez (5 years, $83MM), and locking down the hot corner with Bart Sanders for 4 years ($6.875 per).

Outlook:  Sanders could bring a little spark to last year's underwhelming (669 runs) offense, and 1B Philip Schultz and 2B Derrick Miles could have better years (they HAVE had better years).  But there are still a lot of holes in the lineup.  Their excellent pitching (3.74 ERA, 3rd last year), especially with the addition of Nunez, is good enough to take them a long way.  Imagine this team in the playoffs, with Cano starting 2 games in every 5 game series and 3 in every 7-game series...can Nunez get you 1 win per series?  Sure.  The big question is whether they can grab one of those wild cards.

Minnesota Twins
Season 33:  89-73
GM:  zbrent716

The Offseason:  The Twins lost the vast bulk of their reliever-dominant pitching staff to FA - Brian Murata (166 IP) to the Astros, Luke Richardson (75 IP) to the Padres, Niko Mahomes (147 IP) to the Jays, Lariel Blanco (132 IP) to the Angels, and J.J. Bibby (81 IP) to the Mets.  They also said goodby to the longtime face of the franchise, 1B Asdrubal Azocar.  They countered with some nice low-dollar signings (Julio Pettit, Donaldo Sanchez, Dom Humphries and Javier Castillo), trading for 1-inning specialist Carlos Lee, and promoting the best of their farm system (C Edwar Torrez, SS Jiggs Maduro and a pair of pitchers who will be limited to mopup duty).

Outlook:  It looks like the same plan for the staff:  start Ernie Williams and Yamil Mercado every other game, limit them to 40 pitches, and follow with an endless stream of relievers to get favorable L/R match-ups and keep everyone fatigue-free.  This difference this year is they don't have Murata, Bibby and Blanco in that endless stream and over 162 games, talent will out.  The offense was pretty good last year (838 runs) but will miss Azocar.  My gut tells me it will be a step-back year...maybe even a rebuilding year for the Twinkies, but not before GM zbrent throws out some never-before-seen strategy wrinkles.

Toronto Blue Jays
Season 33:  68-94
GM:  coltonrocks

The Offseason:   The Jays lost too many free agents to bother counting, the biggest being SP Louis Thomas (11-7, 3.46 in 195 IP) and 1B Vin Almonte (.270/25/87), so they had their work cut out for them.  In what appears to be a step toward a "competitive rebuilding plan," the Jays responded mostly with low-budget deals for older-but-useful vets:  RP Steve Davenport, 1B Hector Bennett, SP Niko Mahomes, DH Larry Sewell, OF Christobal Almanzar, SP Albert Calderon and SP Vicente Urbina.

Outlook:  Toronto still has some big talent on the roster - namely last year's FA crown jewel Midre Espinosa (16-9, 3.39 in 238 IP) and CF Bruce Smith (Gold Glove in Seasons 30 and 32).  I might be wrong, but I'd bet both will have new addresses by the trade deadline.  Prediction - Espinosa ends up in the hyper-competitive NL East.

Division Outlook

Hard to see anyone supplanting the White Sox atop the division, although I'm sure the Twins will give it an unconventional try and the Tigers could sneak up on some wildcard contenders.

Season 34 AL South Preview

Kansas City Royals
Season 33: 91-71, lost in Round 1 to Boston
GM: tdfactory

As is his custom, GM tdfactory sent in a much more extensive preview than I would have undertaken...take it away, tdfactory

Offseason: Returning - RP Desmond Wengert and C Edgar Escobar
Added - C Rich Daniels and SP/RP Dave Frascatore
Losses: RP Donaldo Sanchez- (Minnesota), C Tanner Shea (FA), RP J.R. Voigt (FA), RP Louis Locke (FA), DH Manny Martin (Chicago White Sox)

Outlook:  Prior to last offseason, the Royals were faced with some talent and also a roster that had holes and was beginning to age. At that time, the Royals went all in and made quite a splash in FA, deciding that the window of opportunity to win with this club had a short time left. While last year’s major Free Agent spree brought in 5 new starters, it left a looming $138 million payroll this season, which made this past offseason much quieter. 

After digesting losing the division title on a tiebreaker and an early playoff exit, senior management dove into the roster and decided to make a few minor tweaks. While GM tdfactory would have loved to make a major FA Pitching splash to bolster an underperforming staff, payroll limitations hampered that effort. 

Clearly offense was not an issue, with the Royals leading the majors in most offensive categories last year. The offense was bolstered by two of last year’s FA signings -  LF Orlando James (49 HR 120 RBI, .284 ave) and RF Rabbit Grilli (37 HR 118 RBI and .261 ave). The Royals led the majors with Runs scored (901), Hits (1570), RBI (877) AVG (.274) SLG (.451) and OPS (.795). The Royals offense was amazing, with leadoff hitter Ryota Chen's 63 SB’s setting up runners in scoring position with the power alley of 5 hitters with 22 HR’s or better following in the lineup...4 of those had over 100 RBI each. 1B Henry Mercedes continues to shine with his 27 HR 114 RBI and .308 average. C Edgar Escobar continues to be solid behind the plate and Util Rookie Carl Corbin (18 HR and 61 RBI 12 SB) got off to a nice start in his Major League career. 

As good as the offense was, the pitching staff was really average. While 4 starters had double digit wins, there were just too many runs given up and the run support put up by the offense was squandered too often. The talent is there, the staff just has to put together better starts this season to have a chance to advance deeper into the playoffs. 

With only a few minor FA losses this offseason, GM tdfactory only made a few moves, bringing back starting C Edgar Escobar and RP Desmond Wengert. C Rich Daniels was brought in to be the backup catcher, he is more of a defensive catcher and will catch some late innings and give Escobar periodic rest. SP/RP Dave Frascatore was brought in to compete for a starting spot in the rotation, however if last year’s starters remain the same, he will be a solid LRP for the Royals. Not much help expected from the farm this season, with no pitching prospects at all and only offensive prospects. 22 year old Shunsuke Tamura can play LF and 1B but is currently blocked in both positions may get a late season call up to provide a bench bat. 25 year old DH Andrea Lane could get a call depending on how the offense starts out for the Royals. 

As has been stated, the Royals are in win now mode and this may be their best chance to do it. If the season disappoints, it could signal the beginning of a major overhaul in next offseason. 

Tampa Bay Rays
Season 33: 91-71, lost in Round 1 to Oakland
GM: jthornton75

Offseason:  The Rays had 4-5 free agent losses to cover...how'd they do?  They started with re-signing C Shibata and RF Frascatore. and shored up the staff with Jorge Guerrero and Dillon Shave. 

Outlook:  Tampa Bay gambled big on Max Mullens last year, and he responded with 18 wins and a 3.21 ERA in 249 innings pitched - key player in their 91-win season.  They might not need 45 HR's (Season 32) from Chris Freel to repeat that, but they'll need more than 25 (Season 33).  Watch youngsters Peter Hatcher (3b - .256/18/90) and Eugenio Tejada (CF - .275/23/80)...the offense will go how they go.  Underestimated asset:  their short relief corps looks old and under-OVR'd, but they get the outs.  

Here's GM jthornton75 on his team's chances:  "My chances are pretty simple this season. I have a good starting lineup with very little depth and I will be relying heavily on my bullpen as several of my SPs are short on stamina.  My team can compete if they avoid major injuries, but if injuries do occur they probably won't be able to overcome them."

Texas Rangers
Season 33: 68-94
GM:  bperkins

Offseason: The Rangers lost 6 free agents who played fairly big roles for them in Season 33, so they had some major retooling to do.  They signed 3 FA pitchers - Valerio Guzman (minimal innings but effective for MIN the last couple seasons), Nigel Lee (7 seasons as a starter for MIL), and Al Burton (journeyman reliever for 7 seasons, mostly with CLE) - and a catcher - Mario Powell (a defensive specialist who will be making his ML debut).

Outlook:  Texas desperately needs pitching help - 3 of their top 4-ERA pitchers (who pitched over 70 innings left in free agency (and that was on a staff that had a 4.96 team ERA).  The FA additions could help...rookie Don Davis, a Rule V draftee, won't.  MacBeth Kohlmeier, Season 30's 26th pick, will almost certainly get an early call and should help. They have the best 1B/DH combo in the AL with Walter Brooks (.278/54/127) and Glendon Logan (.309/30/109)....the new arms will give them some signs of life, bt not enough to challenge KC and Tampa Bay.

Nashville Sounds
Season 33: 76-86
GM:  fallball

Offseason:  Nashville started retooling at midseason last year, trading CF R.J. Rosado for 2 starters (SP Omar Sanchez and CF Alex Cyr) and an OF prospect (Gus Kirby).  They stepped up and signed SP Paulie Pendleton (career 3.67 ERA) in FA and promoted SP Nate Harnisch, a Season 29 supplemental pick.

Outlook:  Improved...maybe on the verge of wild card territory.  Can they improve to 85 wins (from 76)?  Pendleton and Black are a good enough 1-2 in the rotation to make that leap, but they're short on power (and offense in general) and the bullpen will need some heroic performances for them to contend.   

Division Race:  It's Kansas City and Tampa Bay again, and likely close again.  KC probably starts faster this year and wins it by 5 games or so.

Season 34 NL North Preview

Montreal Expos

Season 33: 93-69, lost to Houston in Round 1

GM: EasyE7273

The Offseason:  Lost starting catcher Robert Roberts and some quality pitching in Sam Lynn  and Joe Roenicke in free agency.  Looks like they're replacing all with internal promotions - they may not be quite as strong starting the season, but they'll be younger and cheaper.    

Outlook: Until their division mates show signs of emerging from rebuilds, they're the continuing odds-on favorite to win the division.  The big question is whether they can make playoff headway against the 2 monsters in the South and the emerging East powerhouses.  Leonardo Grimm (.290/22/86) quickly made Expos fans forget Freddie Lanning, and ace Jim Colin returns after missing half of last season to injury.

Chicago Cubs

Season 33: 62-100

GM: helop

The Offseason:  No significant signings or losses in free agency, the Cubbies are taking the classic promote-from-within route with their rebuild.  OF Steve Mench (Season 30, #10) should be this year's early addition.

Outlook:  Still rebuilding.  With the promotions last year of Kennie Grilli and Rocky Clinton, the rotation has a decidedly competitive look.  But the offense was subpar last year (577 runs) and needs way more help than Mench can offer.  And the bullpen is still comprised mostly of minor-leaguers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Season 33: 60-102

GM:  bfunk

The Offseason:  The Brew Crew had a couple of notable FA losses in SP Nigel Lee and C Patrick Boyer.  Unlike their fellow-rebuilding Cubs and Reds, they addressed the gaps with 8 free agent signings - no big splashes but pitchers Alvin Polonia and Colvin Hume could be improvements.  Paulo Tellis (Sea 30 #24) and Jarrett Boyd (Sea 28 #21) enter Spring Training as the COF starters in a big departure from the all-SS's lineups of recent years.

Outlook:  Milwaukee should improve at least a little on its 577 runs scored last year.  Last year's staff was last in the NL in ERA so they have nowhere to go but up.  Despite the wholesale replacements, though, we shouldn't be looking for vast improvements.  Milwaukee fans have a pair of young OF's to cheer for, but they're looking at some more rebuilding seasons.

Cincinnati Reds

Season 33: 66-96

GM: wrecks

The Offseason:  Cincy said goodbye to a boatload of free agents (non of great impact) and traded Andres Almora.  They didn't add any free agents, so they're going all-internal-promotion to fill out the roster during Spring Training.  The big move will probably be the promotion of Seas 31 #1 overall pick Stan Robinson.  At the moment, their ML Payroll is only $14.7MM, so they're well-positioned for a big IFA this year and they have more moves to make to fill the roster (currently 9 position players).

Outlook:  Of the North's rebuilders, the Reds already have by far the best farm system (plus #'s 2 and 3 this year), so they're way ahead on the rebuilding game.  This year will certainly be another rebuilding season - with a possible flirtation with the MWR - but when the future arrives in Cincy, it's going to arrive big.

The Division Race: no intrigue again this year - The Expos win big.

Season 33 Records Recap

As expected in this pitching-dominant era, we didn't light up any hitting records last year - all the single-season incursions into the record books came on the pitching side.  But we did have a couple of special hitters break into or move up in the career hitting lists.  Enjoy.

On the single-season pitching records side...

Mets ironman Ruben Ozuna tossed 278.3 innings last year, good for 3rd-most all-time.

Rockies' closer Norman Weston notched 51 saves, tied for 3rd all-time.

On the career hitting records ledger...

White Sox slugger Tsuyoshi Tabaka moved into a tie for 3rd  all-time with 672 HR's, and passed Derrin Davenport for 3rd place on the career RBI list with 1869.  He's been #1 on the career runs created chart for awhile now - he extended his mark to 2106.44.

Magglio Rodriguez moved up to #4 in career RC/27 with 8.40.

And, among the career pitching leaders...

With 6 CG's last year, Houston's Tony Moya is about to lap the field in Career CG - 87 vs 2nd place 67 for Grover Thames.  Moya did not have a shutout last year, but still leads career shutouts with 37.

Manuel Cano now sits at #3 all-time ERA at 2.42; Garrett Ward is in at #5 with 2.52.

For career OBP-against, Cano is #4 at .271 and Ozuna is #5 at .272.

Cano moved to #4 in Slugging % allowed at .302 and#4 in WHIP with a 1.04, Ozuna is #5 in WHIP with 1.05.

Jesse Rivera took over #4 in career IP with 4232.3

Kevin Chong cracked the top 5 in saves with 435.

It's Official: HBD Scoring Now At Real-Life MLB levels

Oh, the good old days of HBD, when sluggers routinely hit 70 HR's a year, when you couldn't compete unless your SS hit 25 HR's, and when a 12-man pitching staff was considered "thin".

Those days are over.

In a trend we remarked on at the beginning of Season 32, HBD scoring has been dropping since Season 29 (see the page Historical Scoring Trends, and especially note the "Little Ice Age" from Seasons 29-31).

Season 32 was up - 4.52 runs per team per game, but so far this year we're at 4.28 runs per team per game...only microscopically above MLB's 4.25 for the 2015 season.

What does this heresy mean?

Your sluggers are going to hit 40 HR's a year instead of 60.

That SS who OPS's .560 but turns 27 + plays with a .985 fielding percentage is now GOLD.

Sacrifice bunts  are not necessarily a blatant throwaway of an out anymore.

Stolen bases mean a little something.

What are your thoughts?  Leave comments below or in World Chat.