Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Pitchers with Poor Control

The recent post in World Chat regarding Allen Haynes got me wondering about pitchers with really poor control.  I have a pitcher in Robinzon Neruda who has been quite good with control of 45, but just how bad can a pitcher's control be and he still be a useful MLB player?

The following table shows the players who have pitched at least 10 innings in a season with the worst ratings for Control in that season.  I don't see any seasons under a value of 30 for Control that I would want on my team, and most of the ones above 30 are still less than ideal.

1525Allen Haynes24.22.1106.570
211Joey Reid59.11.8908.040
221Harry Iorg27.12.4909.550
222Harry Iorg39.03.18013.150
221Donaldo Uribe81.02.3809.560
232Donaldo Uribe86.01.9107.430
2410Dante Klassen91.02.1108.310
241Stubby Stoops127.22.2209.520
251Del Yosida15.02.6008.400
259Gerald Bennett53.21.8806.040
2523Tsubasa Martin85.11.8606.750
262Ricky Westbrook50.12.1706.620
272Stubby Stoops160.22.1708.740
273Stubby Stoops128.12.30010.100
281Bailey Damon17.01.4704.760
282Flip Matthews63.02.57012.570
2825P.T. Hampton38.12.19011.030
293Flip Matthews59.01.9207.780
303Rick Becker35.02.3708.490
301Rip Ford58.01.8605.280
301Dustin Boudreau90.01.8104.400
302Dustin Boudreau80.11.7905.830
311Ronn Lesher45.11.9004.570
3118Andy Hull72.01.8207.130
3119Andy Hull112.01.8806.670
322Luis Martinez82.21.9808.380
322Cody Dunwoody86.01.9906.700
321Dennys Little183.01.6806.100
322Dennys Little173.11.9307.790
324Taylor Dean70.11.8605.760
3220Andy Hull58.02.0005.740
3219Alcides Hernandez55.21.7206.310
3220Alcides Hernandez39.21.8207.030
331Morgan Cepeda48.21.3803.510
332Morgan Cepeda30.11.6506.230
331Rico Zapata10.12.2306.970
332Phil Daniels169.01.6305.800
3315Stone Mercker118.01.2802.520
3316Stone Mercker91.11.7606.010
3313Yuniesky Brito19.01.8403.790
3315Cesar Andrus125.21.7305.590
3320Cesar Andrus130.11.7706.490
3321Don Shibata196.11.8106.560
3322Don Shibata85.21.7406.200
344C.J. Little110.12.1107.910
342Tomas Saenz100.21.7606.530
343Tomas Saenz106.11.5805.250
341Omar Castro116.11.7405.490
349Joel Gallagher14.13.07014.440
341Phil Daniels106.21.6405.650
343Phil Daniels18.11.9108.840
344Phil Daniels105.11.8406.070
3417Stone Mercker77.02.2109.000
3418Stone Mercker50.11.4103.040
3419Stone Mercker135.11.5704.590
3420Stone Mercker95.21.5203.860
3421Stone Mercker101.21.4804.430
3417Cesar Andrus173.21.3903.630
3418Cesar Andrus21.02.6206.430
3419Cesar Andrus19.12.0709.780
3418Peter Wood74.12.1306.300
3419Peter Wood25.12.1304.620
3419Danny Benton69.21.9505.430
351B.C. Carey16.11.5306.060
351Carson Butler83.21.5904.200
351Carson Butler51.21.7205.400
352Carson Butler120.01.8006.000
351Mike Stock24.11.9709.250
352Taylor Dean151.11.3903.630
353Taylor Dean50.01.5004.860
351Dan Quinn18.12.4009.820
3514Sam Moseley162.21.7604.980
3520Bubbles Spehr65.11.8106.890
3521Bubbles Spehr73.22.31010.140
3521Barney Lincoln63.12.0407.250
3523P.T. Melian35.12.4308.920
3524J.R. Voigt32.21.4103.310
361Ken Sauveur64.22.1008.630
363Carson Butler60.01.5505.850
364Carson Butler14.01.2101.290
361Taylor Dean108.11.5004.820
362Omar Castro100.21.8005.630
369Allen Mulder44.01.5004.700
3619P.J. Colangelo119.01.4803.930
3624P.T. Melian41.11.6505.230
3624Clarence Alexander97.02.1308.910
3625Clarence Alexander54.01.7203.670
371Greg Strange53.01.8907.640
371Kiko Thompson66.22.0907.700
372Kiko Thompson52.12.0308.250
371Wally Lincoln126.01.4704.500
371Eduardo Cairo46.12.0106.990
371Eduardo Cairo36.21.7705.150
372Eduardo Cairo164.01.7605.540
371Gene Decker181.11.4704.620
372Gene Decker196.01.5804.270
373Gene Decker82.21.7906.420
371Mitch Giles194.11.6705.840
372Mitch Giles172.01.4805.080
373Omar Castro64.01.8907.030

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Where Do Players Come From (Part 2)

As I've gained experience playing this game I've developed my own ideas as to the value of draft picks such as how they compare in value to international signings and when a pick should be forfeited to sign Type A free agents.  I've also enjoyed reading the ideas of others on the message board, but until now I've never attempted to aggregate the data and look at any actual numbers or trends.

And although I love the newer "sabermetric" statistics and to read about new ideas and theories in the world of baseball statistics, I am most certainly not a statistician.  So I'm not putting forth any grand conclusions here.  I'm simply sharing the data in the hope that others might be interested in discussing what they mean and suggesting other things to investigate.

From the beginning of this world through the end of season 25, there have been 4228 players to appear on a major league roster.  Of those, 1741 were created during world creation, 595 were signed as international free agents and 1888 were drafted.  It is these 1888 drafted players we are looking at here.

First, if we simply group these 1888 players by the round they were drafted in we will see that it is extremely top heavy as expected.

Now realistically, we are looking at maybe 21 years of draft data since even the most advanced college players typically need a couple of years in the minors to develop and haven't yet made it on an MLB roster. So the 6th round has given us about one player per year to make an appearance on a MLB roster and it quickly drops to a half player and less beyond that.  And this is simply making an appearance on a MLB roster, not being a real contributor by any means.

If you set very minimum career requirements of achieving 600 at bats, pitching 200 innings or appearing in 40 games as a pitcher, the numbers change to the following.

So from this, it appears your chances of drafting a player who ever plays a meaningful role on your MLB team beyond the 3rd round is very unlikely.  And as we all know, the depth of each draft varies significantly so some years you can get a decent player in the supplemental or 2nd round and some years even the players at the bottom of the 1st round are garbage.

The one player drafted in the 25th round stuck out to me so I had to look him up.  He was Ethan Wyatt, a relief pitcher drafted in season 16 by the Cubs who was a Diamond in the Rough and became just good enough to have a couple of decent seasons in MLB bullpens.  

The other players taken after the 10th round were mostly relief pitchers and defensive catchers.  Other notables include Cliff Jones who has a high power/eye player that managed to have a couple of decent seasons and Ellis Higginson who is still active and currently has a career .391 OBP.  Both of these players were also Diamonds in the Rough.  And Jared Boone was a pretty solid back of the rotation SP for several seasons.

In the next post, we will focus on the 1st round picks and look at those players by draft position.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Where Do Players Come From? (Part 1)

I've been doing some research on the origin of players in our league that I would like to share.  My main purpose in doing this is to evaluate the various draft rounds and draft picks in the first round to get a better idea of what I'm giving up when I sign a Type A free agent.

This first post is just for fun though as I look at what state and country players in our MLB universe have come from.  I was mainly just curious if it was completely random or not.

The chart below shows the number of players from each state/country who have appeared on an MLB roster in our league along with the number of players who meet a minimum set of qualifications I came up with.  Those qualifications are 600 at bats for position players and either 200 innings or 40 games for pitchers.  This is just to eliminate the players who never really contributed anything at all to their MLB team.

The results show that our league has been dominated by Dominican players.  I was a little surprised to see it tilt that heavily.  It also appears I should be sending more of my scouts to the upper midwest.

Over the next few weeks I will try to get a few more posts ready looking at players by draft position and then international signings.  Hopefully it will be interesting to some of you and I would love to hear your feedback, ideas and theories from the data I present.