Thursday, December 31, 2015

What's the funniest thing you've seen posted on the World Chat in any of your worlds?

Anon:  Not sure if it is appropriate here (or anywhere), but many, many years ago when I moved from Michigan to Phoenix I asked about a weed hookup in the area.

"What's the funniest thing you've seen posted on the World Chat in any of your worlds?"

vlpratt62: I cannot remember the world or the owners or player involved, but one Owner A asked Owner B if he would trade his Stud Super Star player (Batter I believe). Owner A: "Will you ever trade Stud Super Star?".  Owner B: "When pigs fly". Some other owner chimed in, "Somebody say Swine Flu?"

"What's the funniest thing you've seen posted on the World Chat in any of your worlds?"

blanch13:  That's easy.  When jclarkbaker posted (in Kinsella I think) something pretty close to:  "I told my wife I'd give up HBD if she'd let me do her in the pooper.  Needless to say I'm still here."

Owner interview: chisox378, Los Angeles Dodgers

#1 - Who is chisox378 in real-life? Hello, Chisox378 is 36 years old, a husband and father of 3 children, 11,9,and an 8 month old. I am Catholic and belong to a religious 3rd order, Secular Franciscan Order. I love baseball and have played in a mens wood bat league the past few years. I am a White Sox fan as you can see by my screen name.
#2 - Best HBD moment?
Since I am fairly new to HBD I don't have too many accomplishments. I do my best to keep my minor leaguers at their full potential because you never know when you may need a player in the bigs.  In one if my first seasons in Robert E McCabe I won an award for having the best win percentage of all the teams combined. I have yet to win a championship at any level.
#3 - Who are your 3 companions (alive or dead, real or fictional) for your "ultimate night out on the town"?
My ultimate night on the town would be with my best friend Kevin, Boogerlips who was my mentor when I started this game, and Babe Ruth, the best player to play the game. Ruth would be an interesting character to hand out with.

#4 - Question of your choice
Why do I like this sort of game? I've always loved stats and numbers in sports. I remember being an only child playing fake games of baseball, basketball and football and always keeping score. To be able to play something like HBD with 30 players is much fun.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Owner interview: dapperduck, Atlanta Braves

#1 - Who is dapperduck in real-life? Dapperduck is a college student at the University of Alabama (ROLL TIDE!!) who loves football more than life itself.

#2 - Best HBD moment?
 It would have to be having a Cy Young winner on my first team ever.  I can't remember his name, but I was pretty proud of it- he was on like a 55 win team, so he was the lone bright spot.

#3 - favorite real life baseball player?
 Interestingly enough, I am not a real life baseball fan. In fact, that caused a very steep learning curve. However, I was in high school when the Rangers made two straight World Series and my mom followed it religiously. I remember game 6 pretty vividly, but I was definitely on the bandwagon. All that to say- Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli, and Adrian Beltre are the three favorites of mine.

#4 - Question of your choice. Thanks
Who will win the College Football Playoff? [A] Alabama! Although I am seriously concerned about OU, as our Achilles heel is a running QB/RB combo.  Add to it that Kirby Smart may leave before the game, and I'm downright nervous.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Final comments (I think) on the trade chat poll

"yes it's a bit more realistic, but it's also a game of skill so it shouldn't be as random as it is. But in real life you can hire more scouts and do more research to find out about a player. We are limited and even if you max out scouting, you still don't have the same info that you would get from reading a copy of Baseball America"
"I dislike it some if you Maxalt your ratings you should build to get an accurate projection on what you're drafting I understand there's good and bad when you're looking at people but a good scout for the most part knows what's going to be good what's going to be bad but I think the old System didn't work very well so I'm willing to try this"

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

And just a couple more...

"if I max HS rating I should see the best results (however everyone would know of Mark Prior and Joe Mauer so rating system has some inherent flaws)."

"I am a 0 advanced scouting guy, so it doesn't matter to me at all. Is that really weird?"

And more comments on trade chat poll..

"I like it - discourages tanking and makes the max scouting something you have yo put money into. Hopefully it discourages outrageous free agent contracts." 
"You do want HD to have some kind of real life features and the draft should be anything but a sure thing. Teams should be built using each of the possible ways (draft, free agency, trades, etc.)."

More comments on the trade chat poll...

"Just seems far too random no matter how much you allocate to scouting"

"Like it, it discourages tanking and makes the game less formulaic, which allows for different strategies to (potentially) be successful."

"Slightly dislike, but I am still not a fan of the new layout, that will push me out the door 1st."

Monday, December 7, 2015

Comments on the trade chat poll...

"i like it, gives me a chance picking in the late to early 20's of the first round to get a great player, because i spend on hs scouting"

"Haven't really looked at it yet. I usually build my teams through the Free Agent market."

"I voted in the poll: love it, it's more realistic. But had I had an open form like this, I would had said "I think I will love it . . . but need to live with it a couple seasons to be sure."

Friday, December 4, 2015

Fuzzy Enough?

How "fuzzy" have the projections of scouting become?  And what does it mean for the draft?

Of course, pre-update the draft was very predictable - it was one of the aspects of HBD least like real life. With a few exceptions, the players were selected roughly in order of quality.

So here's an attempt to make at least a little sense of how jumbled the new fuzzier projections are making our drafts.

Here's what I did.  I looked at the pitchers taken in last year's (Season 31) amateur draft.  First, I charted their ratings improvements through the 3 cycles we've had so far.  Then I projected that their improvement for the rest of the season would equal 70% of the first 3 cycles' improvement (maybe a little low) to get a projection of their ratings at the end of their 2nd pro seasons.  Then I took that 2nd-year improvement and multiplied it by 2.5 to get a projection of their ratings for their 5th pro year.

Here are the 1st-round pitchers with my projections for their eventual ratings:

CON vL vR VEL GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
2 Cespedes 85 50 76 70 79 84 67 64 59 47
3 Kubitza 86 92 68 31 63 83 77 70 62 52
4 Dunham 86 67 84 23 82 81 75 54 0 0
6 Vitters 60 74 72 91 35 94 70 69 77 30
7 Lloyd 89 73 89 81 83 88 65 53 58 0
10 Washington 81 66 79 80 51 72 78 46 56 0
12 Christensen 80 53 50 76 60 82 63 47 0 0
14 Peters 41 58 64 66 73 77 73 54 47 39
16 Thome 78 70 69 31 0 83 83 58 59 27
18 Garces 90 58 63 80 77 88 73 47 0 0
20 Bigbie 85 72 60 41 80 86 71 45 0 0
25 Bowman 75 58 62 76 59 77 62 43 38 22
27 Pujols 75 64 58 71 88 67 77 58 51 30
29 Seelbach 87 65 56 32 63 79 69 51 60 34
30 Logan 60 51 70 30 85 99 74 46 49 0
31 Lyon 75 57 71 25 71 65 69 49 50 26

Couple of things jump out here:

1.  This doesn't look like a great draft for 1st-round pitching.  Outside of maybe 1 guy (Lloyd) there's nobody you'd say is going to be a real ace.  So this bunch could be closer together in talent than we see in other drafts...and the expectation would be that it would be more "jumbled".

2.  That said, it looks like the clear choice for the best pitcher of this group (Lloyd) was the 7th pick, behind 4 other pitchers.  That would've never happened pre-update.

3.  There are a couple of potential bombs here who's owners will probably be ticked if my projections come true.  Christensen at 12 looks like his splits will fall short of ML-caliber.  #14 Peters hasn't improved much so far; I don't know if that's due to coaching, lack of playing time, or he's just already close to his ultimate ratings.

4.  Other than that, these results don't look overly surprising.  For the most part the better pitchers are at the top and the poorer pitchers are at the bottom.

Definitely fuzzier ratings and more jumbled draft order, but not crazy.  Here's what I think we'll see teams doing with this going forward:

1.  Some will pitch the draft altogether and go all-free-agent-all-the-time, just for the more predictable return on $ spent.  Just live with it in lean FA years.

2.  More 20-0 or 0-20 HS/COL scouting configurations (not that we see these, but I think it will happen).  Fuzzier ratings put an even greater premium on scouting accuracy - better to be as accurate as you can be (and see the max number) on one group (HS or COL) than to be blurry on all.  This was already happening pre-update but I think it will accelerate.

What do you think this all means?  How do you think teams will react to the fuzzier projections?  Leave a comment below.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Owner interview - zbrent716, Minnesota Twins

#1 - Who is zbrent716 in real-life?
A librarian working and living in NYC. 

#2 - Best HBD moment?
Probably winning the S14 World Series here in Major Leagues.  It was good to win one with homegrown guys and it just came 2 seasons after an 88-win 4th place division finish - one of only 3 non-playoff seasons for the Twins, playing in the toughest division in World MLB. 

#3 - favorite movie star, band or other entertainer? 
This varies pretty often, but recently I've been very impressed with Tatiana Maslany.

#4 - Who is the greatest NBA player ever? 
What a ridiculous question; there's only 1 reasonable answer. Wilt Chamberlain.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Owner interview - vlpratt62, Detroit Tigers

#1 - Who is VLPratt62?
I started computer programming in HS in 1980. I program on an IBM systems (Power 7 box/RPG). Also an avid Poker player since 2003, currently 
running two poker groups (tournament play) to build bank rolls and to learn more in-depth poker strategies. Looking to retire at age 55, in two years, and play poker full time. The wife is getting her PHD and said I could retire and play (LOVE MY WIFE).

#2 - Best HBD Moment? 
Season 26 Major Leagues, Trading Milton Watson (P) for Future HOF Keith Caldwell (P) and going on and winning my only WS in HBD in a 130+ seasons. Thank You Blanch!!

#3 - Favorite real life baseball player? 
Tough one, so many, I am a Detroit fan, grew up in Michigan, and as a catcher for most of my life growing up my first real favorite player was catcher Bill Freehan of Detroit (61-76), but with that said after living in Texas since 1982, Loved watching Nolan Ryan and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez.

#4 - Question of choice... hmmm... Outside of work, sports, (poker) what are my interests? 
I watch a lot of educational/science/history programs. Of course the wife would like me to watch more home improvement shows.