Sunday, August 12, 2012

Breaking Down The San Diego-Tampa Bay Trade

Amidst yesterday's trade activity I forgot to write up the big San Diego-Tampa Bay trade of a couple days back.  It's a significant move, so let's take a look at it.

The Padres, anticipating playoffs and looking at the fronts of the rotations of NL contenders, had made no secret of their desire to land a Number One Starter.  The settled on Tampa Bay's Paulie Pendleton, the #4 pick of the Season  17 draft.

They gave up Babe Brett (OF), a Season 13 IFA; Ken Federowicz (SP), a Season 11 supplemental pick, and Harry Tejada (SP), a Season 18 IFA.

Brett and Federowicz both have 4 ML years behind them; by looking at their road performance (knocking out the offense-suppressing effects of Petco), we can get a decent estimation of what they'll do in Tampa Bay (a neutral park):

Brett's had road OPS's of .843, .821, .788, .764 (home OPS for the same years: (.779, .810, .748, .764).  That averages about .804.  He had fewer AB's last season for some reason...if we underweight last season a bit we can reasonably ballpark him as an .810 OPS guy.

Not bad, decent OF, maybe gusting up to occasional All-Star status (but that batting eye will suppress his runs created, a major determinant of All-Star).  Probably hits 40 bomb a couple of times.

Doing the same with Federowicz' OPS-Against: .775, .730, .812, .656 (home: .647, .664, .648, .725).  That's about .743.  He also had less activity last year...underweight that a bit and he's about .750.

Let's compare Pendleton to Federowicz, ratings-wise.  Are they close enough in ratings that we can predict anything about Pendleton's performance in San Diego?

They're both lefty, both have control of 76.  Both in the 70's on groundball/flyball.  The differences are splits and pitches:  Pendleton has the better splits, but Federowicz has the better pitches.

Keep in mind, Pendleton has another solid season of ratings improvements ahead of him, so yeah, he's better than Federowicz.  Maybe not this year, but next year.  Even then, though, that vR is going to be in the 60's.  And his pitches will never get as good as Federowicz'.

Verdict:  Pendleton will put up good numbers in San Diego, but he won't be so superior to Federowicz that he was worth giving up Brett.  When it's the 2nd round of the playoffs with Pendleton on the mound at Citizens Bank Park, and he has to face Javier, Bennett, Caballero, Tabaka and Serra, look out.

San Diego didn't get their #1...they got a #2 and gave up a #3 and a pretty good OF to do it.  Wonder what they would've said if Pittsburgh, when they were looking for hitters, had come calling offering Chris McBride for Nate Hood?


zbrent716 said...

You would have been told to take a flying leap, judging from the response the Twins got when trying to make a deal for Hood, Brett, and Brian Murata (RP).

As I recall, the offer for those three was Smalley, Rivera, and a minor-league afterthought and the response was something akin to "this is the worst offer I've ever received." No counter-offer or anything else, just the end of trade discussions.

Now, I value RP as much as (perhaps more than) anyone, and even I don't think Murata - as good and young as he is - is anywhere near max deal talent.

Given the apparent lack of value placed on Brett (as you explained above), he couldn't have been the stumbling block.

That leaves only Hood, and I can only assume that he is just about untouchable.

Dan said...

That probably would've been the response, not that I would've offered it.

As natic has publicly lamented, the most valuable commodity you can have for PLAYOFF baseball is a top starter or 2 or 3. I got lucky enough to round up 3 and I doubt I'll break up that group for anything.