Sunday, August 12, 2012

Talent Flow Update

OK, I've updated the talent-flow analysis from the previous blog post.  This takes in the free agent signings after Ozzie Rolls (I used the list that shows on the Amateur Draft Order page, which misses some free agents - more shortly), all trades after OAK/MIN, and 1 Type A I missed before (Roberto Rodriguez - doesn't show on the Am Draft Page because I declined his option - no picks).

To recap what I did: for all the Type A and B free agents and traded players, I assigned a point value: Type B = 1 point, Type A = 2 points, Type Super A = 4 points.  For the traded players, there were a few judgement calls about whether they were A or B.  For example, Rodney Stuart is a 74 OVR, but is he a starter or reliever?  I called him a RP, which makes him a Type A.

The Super A's are also judgement calls.  Super A's for this breakdown were Smalley, Santiago, Adujar, Young, Max Gutierrez and Payton.

Anyway, then I added up, for each division, how many points moved in and out of the division via FA and trades.

Here's the final tally, this time including the gross inflow and outflow:

So, what's happened since the first breakdown?

AL West joined the NL East as the big talent-loser, thanks to several late free agent defections.

The NL South flipped from negative to positive, thanks to picking up Payton and Atlanta's Type B free agent signings.

The NL West got a lot more active - 8 points out and 5 points in - thanks to all San Diego's activity and Payton's exit.

A couple of other things jump out:

*  The huge activity of the NL East.  NL East had 3 of the top 4 won-lost records in both leagues last year...does hyper-competition prompt more trading and free agent activity?

*  AL South is the big winner...will that translate to more wins?

*  The effects of the Super A's.  Are Super A's really 4 times the impact of Type B's?  Is Benito Andujar (Super A) four times the impact of Reid Jordan (Type B)?

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